Relative and absolute risk of colorectal cancer for individuals with a family history: A meta-analysis
Relative and absolute risk of colorectal cancer for individuals with a family history: A meta-analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ejca.2005.09.023
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发表时间：
2006-01-01
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Pharoah, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Butterworth, AS;Higgins, JPT;Pharoah, P
对有结直肠癌家族史的个体进行准确的风险评估对于监测策略非常重要。我们系统地回顾了结直肠癌家族风险的文献，以确定不同家族史类别的相对风险估计值，并将这些相对风险估计值转化为绝对风险估计值;一项随机效应荟萃分析汇总了来自个体研究的效应估计值，并将精算寿命表方法转化为绝对风险。确定了59项研究，其中47项估计了至少一个受影响的一级亲属患结直肠癌的相对风险。合并风险估计值为2.24（95%CI 2.06至2.43），如果至少有两名亲属受累，则风险估计值升至3.97（95%CI 2.60至6.06）。50岁的人群终生风险为1.8%，至少有一个受影响的亲属增加到3.4%（95% CI 2.8至4.0），或有两个或两个以上的亲属增加到6.9%（95% CI 4.5至10.4）。准确的绝对风险估计显示癌症风险如何随时间变化，特别是根据家族史和风险个体的年龄模式。(c)2005爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Accurate risk estimates for individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer are important for surveillance strategies. We systematically reviewed the literature on familial risks of colorectal cancer to determine relative risk estimates for categories of family history and translated these relative risk estimates into absolute risk estimates.A random-effects meta-analysis pooled the effect estimates from individual studies and actuarial life-table methods converted relative into absolute risks. Fifty-nine studies were identified including 47 that estimated the relative risk of developing colorectal cancer given at least one affected first-degree relative. The pooled risk estimate was 2.24 (95% CI 2.06 to 2.43) which rose to 3.97 (95% CI 2.60 to 6.06) with at least two affected relatives. A population lifetime risk of 1.8% for a 50-year old increased to 3.4% (95% Cl 2.8 to 4.0) with at least one affected relative or 6.9% (95% CI 4.5 to 10.4) with two or more. Accurate absolute risk estimates show how cancer risks vary over time, particularly by pattern of family history and age of individual at-risk. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.