Analysis and forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania
Analysis and forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.05.018
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发表时间：
2010-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Minea, Alina A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bianco, Vincenzo;Manca, Oronzio;Minea, Alina A.
用电量预测对于一个国家的能源规划具有根本性的重要性。在本文中，我们提出了罗马尼亚非住宅用电量的分析和两个预测模型。本文的第一部分致力于 GDP 和消费价格弹性的估计。非住宅短期GDP和价格弹性分别约为0.136和-0.0752，而长期GDP和价格弹性分别等于0.496和-0.274。研究的第二部分致力于预测截至2020年的非住宅用电量。采用Holt-Winters指数平滑方法和带有滚动机制的三角灰色模型（TGMRM）进行消耗预测。这两个模型得出的结果相似，平均偏差小于 5%。相对于本研究中考虑的时间范围，这种偏差被认为是可以接受的。 (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。
Electricity consumption forecast has fundamental importance in the energy planning of a country. In this paper, we present an analysis and two forecast models for nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania. A first part of the paper is dedicated to the estimation of GDP and price elasticities of consumption. Nonresidential short run GDP and price elasticities are found to be approximately 0.136 and -0.0752, respectively, whereas long run GDP and price elasticities are equal to 0.496 and -0.274 respectively.The second part of the study is dedicated to the forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption up to year 2020. A Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method and a trigonometric grey model with rolling mechanism (TGMRM) are employed for the consumption prediction. The two models lead to similar results, with an average deviation less than 5%. This deviation is to be considered acceptable in relation to the time horizon considered in the present study. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.