Modelling the effects of pre-exposure and post-exposure vaccines in tuberculosis control
Modelling the effects of pre-exposure and post-exposure vaccines in tuberculosis control
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.06.023
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发表时间：
2008-10-07
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Magombedze, G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bhunu, C. P.;Garira, W.;Magombedze, G.
流行病控制策略改变了疾病在宿主人群中的传播。在本文中，我们描述和讨论的数学模型，可用于探索潜在的暴露前和暴露后的疫苗，目前正在开发中的结核病控制。首先提出了一个接种卡介苗（BCG）的易感者和治疗感染者的模型。确定了模型的基本再生数和平衡点，并研究了模型的稳定性。比较模型的繁殖数，以评估目前正在开发的疫苗的影响。利用中心流形理论证明了当伴随再生数小于1时，系统存在向后分支，当伴随再生数大于1时，系统唯一的地方病平衡点是局部渐近稳定的。目前正在开发的暴露疫苗与潜伏感染的化学预防和感染物的治疗相结合，相比之下，目前正在开发的暴露后疫苗用于潜伏感染者，并结合治疗感染者。(c)2008爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有
Epidemic control strategies alter the spread of the disease in the host Population. In this paper, we describe and discuss mathematical models that can be used to explore the potential of pre-exposure and post-exposure vaccines currently under development in the control of tuberculosis. A model with bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination for the susceptibles and treatment for the infectives is first presented. The epidemic thresholds known as the basic reproduction numbers and equilibria for the models are determined and stabilities are investigated. The reproduction numbers for the models are compared to assess the impact of the vaccines currently under development. The centre manifold theory is used to show the existence of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number is less than unity and that the unique endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is greater than unity From the stud we conclude that there pre-exposure vaccine currently under development coupled with chemoprophylaxis for the latently infected and treatment of infectives is more effective when compared to the post-exposure vaccine currently under development for the latently infected coupled with treatment of the infectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved