Ambient Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in 652 Cities.
Ambient Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in 652 Cities.
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652个城市的环境颗粒物空气污染和每日死亡率
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa1817364
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发表时间：
2019-08-22
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Kan H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Liu C;Chen R;Sera F;Vicedo-Cabrera AM;Guo Y;Tong S;Coelho MSZS;Saldiva PHN;Lavigne E;Matus P;Valdes Ortega N;Osorio Garcia S;Pascal M;Stafoggia M;Scortichini M;Hashizume M;Honda Y;Hurtado-Díaz M;Cruz J;Nunes B;Teixeira JP;Kim H;Tobias A;Íñiguez C;Forsberg B;Åström C;Ragettli MS;Guo YL;Chen BY;Bell ML;Wright CY;Scovronick N;Garland RM;Milojevic A;Kyselý J;Urban A;Orru H;Indermitte E;Jaakkola JJK;Ryti NRI;Katsouyanni K;Analitis A;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Chen J;Wu T;Cohen A;Gasparrini A;Kan H
空气污染时间序列研究结果的系统评价受到模型规格和出版偏差差异的挑战。我们评估了空气动力学直径为10 μm或更小（PM10）的可吸入颗粒物（PM）和空气动力学直径为2.5 μm或更小（PM2.5）的细颗粒物与多个国家或地区每日全因、心血管和呼吸系统死亡率的相关性。研究人员从24个国家或地区的652个城市收集了每日死亡率和空气污染数据。我们使用过度分散的广义加性模型和随机效应荟萃分析来研究相关性。两种污染物模型进行了拟合，以测试的协会的鲁棒性。汇总每个城市的浓度-响应曲线，以获得全球估计值。平均而言，PM10浓度的两天移动平均值（代表当前和前一天的平均值）每立方米增加10微克，则增加0.44%（95%置信区间[CI]，0.39 - 0.50），每日全因死亡率为0.36%（95% CI，0.30 - 0.43），每日呼吸道死亡率为0.47%（95% CI，0.35 - 0.58）。对于PM2.5浓度的相同变化，每日死亡率的相应增加为0.68%（95%CI，0.59至0.77），0.55%（95%CI，0.45至0.66）和0.74%（95%CI，0.53至0.95）。这些协会仍然显着调整后的气体污染物。在年平均PM浓度较低和年平均气温较高的地方，关联性更强。合并的浓度-反应曲线显示，随着PM浓度的增加，每日死亡率一致增加，PM浓度较低时斜率更陡。我们的数据显示，在地球仪的600多个城市中，短期暴露于PM10和PM2.5与每日全因、心血管和呼吸系统死亡率之间存在独立关联。这些数据强化了区域和当地研究中确定的死亡率与PM浓度之间存在联系的证据。（国家自然科学基金等资助）
The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias. We evaluated the associations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10) and fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects meta-analysis to investigate the associations. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the associations. Concentration–response curves from each city were pooled to allow global estimates to be derived. On average, an increase of 10 μg per cubic meter in the 2-day moving average of PM10 concentration, which represents the average over the current and previous day, was associated with increases of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.50) in daily all-cause mortality, 0.36% (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.43) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.58) in daily respiratory mortality. The corresponding increases in daily mortality for the same change in PM2.5 concentration were 0.68% (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77), 0.55% (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.66), and 0.74% (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). These associations remained significant after adjustment for gaseous pollutants. Associations were stronger in locations with lower annual mean PM concentrations and higher annual mean temperatures. The pooled concentration–response curves showed a consistent increase in daily mortality with increasing PM concentration, with steeper slopes at lower PM concentrations. Our data show independent associations between short-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 and daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in more than 600 cities across the globe. These data reinforce the evidence of a link between mortality and PM concentration established in regional and local studies. (Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others.)