Assessment of potential biomass energy production in China towards 2030 and 2050
Assessment of potential biomass energy production in China towards 2030 and 2050
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DOI：
10.1080/14786451.2016.1231677
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发表时间：
2018-01
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Guangling Zhao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guangling Zhao
摘要 本文的目的是更详细地描述中国能源系统到 2030 年和 2050 年生物质能源生产的潜力。生物能源原料的生物质有五个来源，即农业作物剩余物、森林剩余物和工业木材废料、能源作物和木本作物、动物粪便和城市固体废物。潜在的生物质产量是根据资源可用性来预测的。在确定生物质资源生产的过程中，对耕地、边际土地、农作物产量、森林增长率、肉类消耗和废物产生做出假设。设计了四种情景来描述生物质能源潜在产量，以阐述2030年生物质能源在中国能源系统中的作用。评估显示，在土地供应量一定限制下，2030年和2050年生物质能源最大潜在产量预计分别为18,833 PJ和24,901 PJ。
ABSTRACT The objective of this paper is to provide a more detailed picture of potential biomass energy production in the Chinese energy system towards 2030 and 2050. Biomass for bioenergy feedstocks comes from five sources, which are agricultural crop residues, forest residues and industrial wood waste, energy crops and woody crops, animal manure, and municipal solid waste. The potential biomass production is predicted based on the resource availability. In the process of identifying biomass resources production, assumptions are made regarding arable land, marginal land, crops yields, forest growth rate, and meat consumption and waste production. Four scenarios were designed to describe the potential biomass energy production to elaborate the role of biomass energy in the Chinese energy system in 2030. The assessment shows that under certain restrictions on land availability, the maximum potential biomass energy productions are estimated to be 18,833 and 24,901 PJ in 2030 and 2050.