Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses
Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses
复制标题
所有的增长都去哪儿了？
DOI：
10.1023/a:1009863208706
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发表时间：
1998
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
D. Rodrik
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Rodrik
这篇文章认为，国内社会冲突是理解为什么增长率缺乏持续性以及为什么自20世纪70年代中期以来如此多的国家经历了增长崩溃的关键。它特别强调社会冲突与外部冲击相互作用的方式，以及国内冲突管理机构。计量经济学证据为这一假设提供了支持。1975年后经济增长下降最严重的国家是社会分裂(以不平等、族裔分裂等指标衡量)和冲突管理机构薄弱(以政府机构质量、法治、民主权利和社会安全网指标衡量)的国家。
This article argues that domestic social conflicts are a key to understanding why growth rates lack persistence and why so many countries have experienced a growth collapse since the mid-1970s. It emphasizes, in particular, the manner in which social conflicts interact with external shock on the one hand, and the domestic institutions of conflict-management on the other. Econometric evidence provides support for this hypothesis. Countries that experienced the sharpest drops in growth after 1975 were those with divided societies (as measured by indicators of inequality, ethnic fragmentation, and the like) and with weak institutions of conflict management (proxied by indicators of the quality of governmental institutions, rule of law, democratic rights, and social safety nets).