Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle
Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle
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DOI：
10.5194/esd-5-309-2014
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
7.3
通讯作者：
Gayler, V.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Boysen, L. R.;Brovkin, V.;Gayler, V.
在21世纪新的相互作用的二氧化碳模拟中，土地利用和土地覆盖变化的生物地球物理(BGP)和生物地球化学(BGC)效应在全球和区域尺度上被分离。分析了四个地球系统模型(ESM)对未来RCP8.5情景的模拟结果，这些模拟是在有和没有土地利用和土地覆盖变化(LULCC)的情况下进行的，有助于土地利用和气候，确定稳健影响(LUID)项目。在2006-2100年期间，LULCC使CanESM2、MIROC-ESM和MPI-ESM-LR的大气二氧化碳浓度分别增加了12ppm、22ppm和66ppm。在BGC引起的全球年平均增温在0.07~0.23K之间的三个模式中，全球近地表温度发生了显著的变化。在不同符号和强度(-0.47~0.10K)的强LULCC区，用三个模式模拟了BGP引起的响应。LULCC对土地碳库的修改是按照可能导致该碳库增加和减少的过程进行的。分别用MPI-ESM-LR、MIROC-ESM、IPSL-CM5A-LR和CANESM2的218、57、35和34GTC模式模拟了LULCC造成的全球陆地碳损失。相反，LULCC引起的大气CO2浓度升高所引起的CO2施肥效应导致MPI-ESM-LR的陆地碳增量为39GTC，而在其他模型中几乎可以忽略不计。模型对LULCC响应的差异在很大程度上归因于LULCC的实施(例如，是否明确模拟牧场或作物)和对特定过程的模拟的差异。需要进行简单的理想化实验，明确在可持续发展机制中实施LULCC的协议，以增加对模型响应的理解和结果的统计意义，特别是在分析LULCC的区域规模影响时。
Biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC) are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs) are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC), contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID) project. Over the period 2006-2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between -0.47 and 0.10 K). Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly) and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.