The technical potential of G reat B ritain to produce ligno-cellulosic biomass for bioenergy in current and future climates
The technical potential of G reat B ritain to produce ligno-cellulosic biomass for bioenergy in current and future climates
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英国在当前和未来气候下生产用于生物能源的木质纤维素生物质的技术潜力
DOI：
10.1111/gcbb.12103
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Hastings A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hastings A
描述多年生能源草Miscanthus（MiscanFor©）、短轮伐期矮林（SRC）树木和灌木、白杨和杨柳（ForestGrowth-SRC）以及许多短轮伐期森林树木的木质纤维素生物质产量的过程和基于经验的模型（ESC-CARBINE）被用来估计英国（GB）当前和未来气候的产量潜力。在当前气候条件下，所有原料作物的模拟产量在8.1至10.6 Mg干重（DW）ha− 1 yr − 1之间变化，杨柳SRC和白杨SRF分别产生最低和最高产量。对于2050年的中等排放情景（UKCP 09），所有原料作物的平均产量在7.6至12.7 Mg DW ha− 1 yr − 1之间变化，杨柳SRC和白杨SRF再次成为最低和最高记录产量。在GB内有明显的地理趋势。西南部的Miserichus产量高于所有其他作物（13.1 Mg DW ha− 1 yr −1），西北部的SRC杨柳和SRC白杨（12.1-15.8 Mg DW ha− 1 yr −1），中部和东南部的SRF白杨产量最高（10.5-11.6 Mg DW ha− 1 yr −1）。到2050年，这些地理趋势随气候变化不大，每种“最佳饲料”的平均产量从12.7至14.2 Mg DW ha− 1 yr −1增加。到2050年，SRC略有下降，而Miserusus和SRF白杨作为“最佳原料”的选择增加。除个别地区外，只有SRF白杨的产量高于SRC和芒草。这些数据表明，在当前和未来的气候条件下，可以选择和优化木质纤维素生物质种植园品种，以获得最佳的产量表现在GB的不同地区。该建模框架为测试新遗传物质的性能提供了一个有价值的起点，因为这对于可能影响生物能源行业的模型和社会经济情景来说是可用的和参数化的。
Process and empirical‐based models that describe lignocellulosic biomass yield of the perennial energy grassMiscanthus(MiscanFor©), short rotation coppice (SRC) trees and shrubs, poplar and willow (ForestGrowth‐SRC) and a number of short rotation forest trees (ESC‐CARBINE), were used to estimate the yield potential for current and future climates across Great Britain (GB). In current climates, modelled yields for all feedstock crops varied between 8.1 and 10.6 Mg dry weight (DW) ha−1yr−1with willow SRC and poplar SRF producing the lowest and highest yields respectively. For the medium emissions scenario (UKCP09) in 2050, mean yield for all feedstock crops varied between 7.6 and 12.7 Mg DW ha−1yr−1with willow SRC and poplar SRF once again the lowest and the highest recorded yields. There were clear geographical trends within GB.Miscanthusyield was higher than all others in the south‐west (13.1 Mg DW ha−1yr−1), SRC willow and SRC poplar in the north‐west (12.1–15.8 Mg DW ha−1yr−1) and in the midlands and south‐east, SRF poplar was the highest yielding (10.5–11.6 Mg DW ha−1yr−1). These geographical trends changed little with climate out to 2050, with mean yield of each ‘best feedstock’ increasing from 12.7 to 14.2 Mg DW ha−1yr−1. Out to 2050, SRC declined slightly andMiscanthusand SRF poplar increased as the ‘best feedstock’ option. Except for a few localized examples, only SRF poplar had a higher yield than SRC orMiscanthus. These data suggest that in current and future climates, lignocellulosic biomass plantation species can be selected and optimized for best yield performance in different regions of GB. This modelling framework provides a valuable starting‐point for which to test the performance of new genetic material, as this becomes available and parameterized for the models and socio‐economic scenarios that may impact on the bioenergy industry.