Different Transmission Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and Influenza Suggest the Relative Efficiency of Isolation/Quarantine and Social Distancing Against COVID-19 in China
Different Transmission Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and Influenza Suggest the Relative Efficiency of Isolation/Quarantine and Social Distancing Against COVID-19 in China
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DOI：
10.1093/cid/ciaa1584
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发表时间：
2021-12-01
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Shu, Yuelong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lei, Hao;Wu, Xifeng;Shu, Yuelong
背景。针对 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 的非药物干预措施 (NPI) 对于降低传播风险至关重要。然而，由于中国几乎同时实施了社交距离和隔离/隔离措施，因此社交距离针对 COVID-19 的相对效率仍然存在争议。在本研究中，由于流感流行没有采取隔离/检疫措施，因此使用 2018-2020 年 COVID-19 和季节性流感的监测数据来量化中国 NPI 针对 COVID-19 的相对效率。鉴于对流感和COVID-19的相对年龄依赖性易感性可能有所不同，建立了年龄结构的易感/感染/康复模型，以探讨不同人群易感性情景下保持社交距离对抗COVID-19的效率。结果。 NPI 之前 COVID-19 的平均有效再生数 R-t 为 2.12（95% 置信区间 [CI]，2.02-2.21）。截至 2020 年 3 月 11 日，COVID-19 的 R-t 总体下降了 66.1%（95% CI，60.1-71.2%）。与2018-19流行病学年相比，2019-20流行病学年流感传播率降低了34.6%（95% CI，31.3-38.2%）。根据观察到的中国接触模式的变化，在 3 种不同的情况下，社交距离对 COVID-19 的效果相似。假设社交距离对季节性流感和 COVID-19 传播的效率相同，隔离/隔离和社交距离可分别使 COVID-19 的传播率降低 48.1%（95% CI，35.4-58.1%）和 34.6%（95% CI，31.3-38.2%）。结论。尽管隔离/检疫比社交距离更有效，但鉴于 COVID-19 的典型基本传染数为 2-3，仅隔离/检疫无法有效遏制中国的 COVID-19 大流行。
Background. Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are vital to reducing transmission risks. However, the relative efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 remains controversial, since social distancing and isolation/quarantine were implemented almost at the same time in China.Methods. In this study, surveillance data of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza in 2018-2020 were used to quantify the relative efficiency of NPIs against COVID-19 in China, since isolation/quarantine was not used for the influenza epidemics. Given that the relative age-dependent susceptibility to influenza and COVID-19 may vary, an age-structured susceptible/infected/recovered model was built to explore the efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 under different population susceptibility scenarios.Results. The mean effective reproductive number, R-t, of COVID-19 before NPIs was 2.12 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.02-2.21). By 11 March 2020, the overall reduction in R-t of COVID-19 was 66.1% (95% CI, 60.1-71.2%). In the epidemiological year 2019-20, influenza transmissibility was reduced by 34.6% (95% CI, 31.3-38.2%) compared with transmissibility in epidemiological year 2018-19. Under the observed contact pattern changes in China, social distancing had similar efficiency against COVID-19 in 3 different scenarios. By assuming the same efficiency of social distancing against seasonal influenza and COVID-19 transmission, isolation/quarantine and social distancing could lead to 48.1% (95% CI, 35.4-58.1%) and 34.6% (95% CI, 31.3-38.2%) reductions of the transmissibility of COVID-19, respectively.Conclusions. Though isolation/quarantine is more effective than social distancing, given that the typical basic reproductive number of COVID-19 is 2-3, isolation/quarantine alone could not contain the COVID-19 pandemic effectively in China.