Quantifying the anthropogenic and meteorological influences on summertime surface ozone in China over 2012-2017
Quantifying the anthropogenic and meteorological influences on summertime surface ozone in China over 2012-2017
复制标题
量化2012-2017年中国夏季地表臭氧的人为和气象影响。
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142394
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发表时间：
2021-02-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Fu, Yu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dang, Ruijun;Liao, Hong;Fu, Yu
我们应用全球 3D 化学迁移模型 GEOS-Chem 来研究 2012-2017 年清洁空气行动期间，人为和气象对推动中国夏季 (JJA) 表面臭氧 (O-3) 趋势的贡献。该模型捕捉了观察到的中国夏季 O-3 浓度的空间分布 (R-0.78)，并再现了在两个人口最多的城市群：华北平原 (NCP) 和长江三角洲 (YRD) 中观察到的增长趋势。 2012-2017 年 JJA 模拟最大日均 8 小时平均 (MDA8) O3 浓度趋势为：NCP 0.58 ppbv yr(-1) 和 YRD 1.74 ppbv yr(-1)。敏感性研究表明，人为排放和气象变化都有利于这两个地区MDA8 O3的增加，其中NCP的贡献分别为39%和49%，长三角的贡献分别为13%和84%。在 NCP 中，49% 的气象影响其中很大一部分来自自然排放 (19%)。据估计，生物挥发性有机化合物、土壤氮氧化物和闪电氮氧化物排放的变化将分别以 0.14、0.10 和 0.14 ppbv yr(-1) 的速率增强 NCP 中的 MDA8 O-3。在长三角，自然排放对 MDA8 O-3 趋势的贡献较小。统计分析表明，2017年较2012年气温升高和850 hPa异常南风是华北地区O-3增加的两大气象驱动因素，而长三角地区风速减弱和相对湿度较低是推动O-3增加的两大气象驱动因素。我们进一步研究了与极端污染事件相关的特定月份中第四高每日最大 8 小时平均 (4MDA8) O3 的趋势。 NCP 和 YRD 的模拟 4MDA8 O-3 趋势比 MDA8 O-3 高出 34-46%，并且更多是由气象引起的。我们的研究结果表明，近年来气象在推动中国夏季 O-3 增加方面发挥着重要作用。 (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
We applied the global 3-D chemical transportmodel GEOS-Chemto examine the anthropogenic and meteorological contributions in driving summertime (JJA) surface ozone (O-3) trend in China during the Clean Air Action period 2012-2017. The model captures the observed spatial distribution of summertime O-3 concentrations in China (R-0.78) and reproduces the observed increasing trends in two most populated city clusters: North China Plain (NCP) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD). Trend of simulated maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) O3 concentration is 0.58 ppbv yr(-1) in NCP and 1.74 ppbv yr(-1) in YRD in JJA 2012-2017. Sensitivity studies show that both changes in anthropogenic emissions and meteorology favored the MDA8 O3 increases in these two regions with respective contributions of 39% and 49% in NCP, and 13% and 84% in YRD. In NCP, the 49% meteorology impact includes a considerable contribution fromnatural emissions (19%). Changes in biogenic VOCs, soil NOx, and lightning NOx emissions are estimated to enhanceMDA8 O-3 in NCP with a rate of 0.14, 0.10, and 0.14 ppbv yr(-1), respectively. In YRD, natural emissions made small contributions to the MDA8 O-3 trend. Statistical analysis shows that higher temperatures and anomalous southerlies at 850 hPa in 2017 relative to 2012 are the two major meteorological drivers in NCP that favored the O-3 increases, while weaker wind speed and lower relative humidity are those for YRD. We further examined the trend of fourth highest daily maximum 8-h average (4MDA8) O3 among a specific month that linked with extreme pollution episodes. Trends of simulated 4MDA8 O-3 in NCP and YRD are 34-46% higher than those of MDA8 O-3 and are found more meteorology-induced. Our results suggest an important role of meteorology in driving summertime O-3 increases in China in recent years. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.