Future Risks of Tsunami‐Induced Seawater Intrusion Into Unconfined Coastal Aquifers: Insights From Numerical Simulations at Niijima Island, Japan

Future Risks of Tsunami‐Induced Seawater Intrusion Into Unconfined Coastal Aquifers: Insights From Numerical Simulations at Niijima Island, Japan
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海啸引起的海水入侵无承压沿海含水层的未来风险:日本新岛数值模拟的见解

DOI:
10.1029/2019wr025386
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发表时间:
2019
影响因子:
5.4
通讯作者:
T.
T.
中科院分区:
地球科学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Liu;J. and Tokunaga;T.

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海啸引发的海水泛滥导致海水垂直渗入沿海含水层,并导致淡水地下水资源意外盐碱化。评估海啸易发地区未来海水入侵的风险可以提供支持备灾的基本信息。在这项研究中,我们研究了未来南开地震和海啸情景下日本新岛岛的海水入侵和含水层恢复过程。利用数值模拟软件FEFLOW,建立了非饱和-饱和介质中变密度渗流和盐分运移的二维垂向断面地下水模型。我们的模拟结果表明,在预期的海啸淹没期间,非饱和区作为渗透海水的初始储存区,控制着海水的最大渗透量。基岩结构影响饱和带内海水运动方向和受污染含水层的冲刷时间。我们的分析表明,海啸淹没高度、降雨补给率和水力传导性是模拟结果中不确定因素的主要来源。这些发现对于理解相关的物理过程和模型的不确定性对其他海啸易发地区也有影响。
Tsunami‐induced seawater inundation causes vertical seawater infiltration into coastal aquifers and induces unexpected salinization of fresh groundwater resources. Assessing future risks of seawater intrusion in tsunami‐prone areas can provide essential information supporting disaster preparedness. In this study, we investigated seawater intrusion and aquifer recovery processes under the future Nankai earthquake and tsunami scenarios at Niijima Island, Japan. A groundwater model with a 2‐D vertical cross section was developed to solve variable‐density flow and salt transport in unsaturated‐saturated media using the numerical code, FEFLOW. Our simulation results indicate that the unsaturated zone behaves as an initial storage of the infiltrated seawater and controls the maximum amount of seawater infiltration during the anticipated tsunami inundation. The bedrock structures affect the direction of seawater movement in the saturated zone and the flushing time of the polluted aquifer. Our analysis suggests that the tsunami inundation height, the rainfall recharge rate, and hydraulic conductivity are the primary sources of uncertainties in the simulation results. These findings have implications for other tsunami‐prone zones with respect to the understanding of the relevant physical processes and model uncertainties.
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