Predictions of future grazing season length for European dairy, beef and sheep farms based on regression with bioclimatic variables
Predictions of future grazing season length for European dairy, beef and sheep farms based on regression with bioclimatic variables
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基于生物气候变量回归预测欧洲奶牛场、牛羊场未来放牧季节长度
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
0.6
通讯作者：
P. O'kiely
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Paul Phelan;Eric R. Morgan;Hannah Rose;Jim Grant;P. O'kiely
在具有反刍动物生产系统的草地农场上，放牧季节长度（GSL）会影响农场经济、牲畜疾病传播、环境影响、牛奶和肉类质量以及消费者选择。生物气候变量是具有生物学意义的气候变量，可以预测未来气候变化对欧洲农场GSL的影响。本研究调查了欧洲统计局分别在706、774和878个地区的奶牛、牛肉和绵羊农场测量的当前GSL（月）与生物气候变量之间的空间关系。逐步多元回归模型显示，在整个欧洲观察到的GSL和生物气候变量之间存在高度显着的关联。平均GSL与最冷季度的平均温度和等温线呈正相关，与最湿月份的降水呈负相关。将这些关系外推到未来的气候变化情景中，预计大多数欧洲国家的GSL将出现净增长，欧洲东北部的增长最大（达2.5个月）。然而，也有预测说，地区之间的变化会增加，在法国西部、挪威西南部和英国西海岸等一些地区，GSL会减少多达1.5个月。该研究量化并绘制了气候变化对欧洲各地奶牛、牛肉和绵羊养殖场GSL的潜在影响。
SUMMARY Grazing season length (GSL) on grassland farms with ruminant production systems can influence farm economics, livestock disease transmission, environmental impact, milk and meat quality, and consumer choice. Bioclimatic variables are biologically meaningful climate variables that may enable predictions of the impact of future climate change on GSL on European farms. The present study investigated the spatial relationship between current GSL (months) measured by EUROSTAT on dairy, beef and sheep farms in 706, 774 and 878 regions, respectively, and bioclimatic variables. A stepwise multiple regression model revealed a highly significant association between observed GSL and bioclimatic variables across Europe. Mean GSL was positively associated with the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and isothermality, and negatively associated with precipitation in the wettest month. Extrapolating these relationships to future climate change scenarios, most European countries were predicted to have a net increase in GSL with the increase being largest (up to 2·5 months) in the north-east of Europe. However, there were also predictions of increased variability between regions and decreases in GSL of up to 1·5 months in some areas such as the west of France, the south-west of Norway and the west coast of Britain. The study quantified and mapped the potential impact of climate change on GSL for dairy, beef and sheep farms across Europe.
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Jones, C. D.;Hughes, J. K.;Zerroukat, M.
通讯作者：
Zerroukat, M.