Mapping trends in insecticide resistance phenotypes in African malaria vectors
Mapping trends in insecticide resistance phenotypes in African malaria vectors
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pbio.3000633
复制
发表时间：
2020-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Moyes, Catherine L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hancock, Penelope A.;Hendriks, Chantal J. M.;Moyes, Catherine L.
要减轻非洲疟疾病媒群体中杀虫剂抗药性的威胁，就需要全面了解抗药性发生的地点、程度以及这种情况如何随时间发生变化。估计这些趋势是复杂的稀疏，异质性分布的观察抗性表型在田间种群。我们使用了6，423个对最重要的病媒控制杀虫剂的耐药性流行率的观察结果，为贝叶斯地统计集成建模方法提供信息，生成了非洲冈比亚按蚊复合体蚊子耐药性表型的精细预测图。我们的模型由一套111个预测变量组成，这些变量描述了抗性选择的潜在驱动因素。我们的地图显示，从2005年到2017年，撒哈拉以南非洲地区对拟除虫菊酯和滴滴涕的耐药性流行率惊人地增加，在某些地区，杀虫剂暴露后的平均死亡率从几乎100%下降到不到30%，以及耐药性趋势的巨大空间差异。
Mitigating the threat of insecticide resistance in African malaria vector populations requires comprehensive information about where resistance occurs, to what degree, and how this has changed over time. Estimating these trends is complicated by the sparse, heterogeneous distribution of observations of resistance phenotypes in field populations. We use 6,423 observations of the prevalence of resistance to the most important vector control insecticides to inform a Bayesian geostatistical ensemble modelling approach, generating fine-scale predictive maps of resistance phenotypes in mosquitoes from the Anopheles gambiae complex across Africa. Our models are informed by a suite of 111 predictor variables describing potential drivers of selection for resistance. Our maps show alarming increases in the prevalence of resistance to pyrethroids and DDT across sub-Saharan Africa from 2005 to 2017, with mean mortality following insecticide exposure declining from almost 100% to less than 30% in some areas, as well as substantial spatial variation in resistance trends.