Predictors of smoking onset over two years
Predictors of smoking onset over two years
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DOI：
10.1080/14622200701705357
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发表时间：
2007-01-01
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Smolkowski, Keith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Forrester, Kathleen;Biglan, Anthony;Smolkowski, Keith
这项分析的目的是确定预测青少年开始吸烟的变量，以及在两年内对吸烟的易感性的发展。我们评估了可能预测7年级和9年级不吸烟学生日后吸烟的变量，并在两年后评估了他们的吸烟状况，当时他们分别在9年级和11年级，因此在两个时间点收到了4130名学生的数据。在两年内开始每周吸烟与父母、兄弟姐妹或亲密朋友吸烟、学校成绩低、越轨行为水平较高、吸烟易感性、使用无烟烟草有关；对于七年级学生来说，感受到较高水平的正常吸烟。敏感度被定义为在调查一年后不能排除吸烟的想法，被认为是吸烟的一个强有力的预测因素，也是一个有价值的中介指标。我们还评估了与测试后2年易感性预测相关的因素。对吸烟的易感性与越轨行为、低年级、较低的父母监督、父母对青少年吸烟的宽松态度、容易获得烟草以及较少接触反烟草信息有关。这项研究支持了吸烟易感性可能是烟草研究的一个有用的结果变量的观点，作为吸烟开始的中介。此外，证据表明，理论上可操纵的变量，包括获得烟草和接触反烟草信息，有可能在一段时间内影响吸烟的易感性。
The objective of this analysis was to identify variables that predict the initiation of smoking among adolescents, and the development of susceptibility to smoking, over a 2-year period. We assessed variables that might predict later smoking among nonsmoking students in grades 7 and 9 and assessed their smoking status 2 years later, when they were in grades 9 and 11, thus receiving data from 4,130 students at two time points. Initiation of weekly smoking over the 2 years was associated with having a parent, sibling, or close friend who smokes; low school grades; higher levels of deviant behavior; susceptibility to smoking; use of smokeless tobacco; and for 7th graders, perception of higher levels of normative smoking. Susceptibility, defined as not being able to rule out the idea of smoking a year after the survey, was identified as a strong predictor of smoking and a valuable intermediary measure. We also assessed factors associated with the prediction of susceptibility 2 years post-test. Susceptibility to smoking was associated with deviant behavior, low grades, lower parental monitoring, relaxed parental attitude toward youth smoking, ease of access to tobacco, and lower exposure to anti-tobacco messages. This study provides support for the idea that susceptibility to smoking could be a useful outcome variable for tobacco research, as an intermediary to the initiation of smoking. In addition, evidence indicates that theoretically manipulable variables, including access to tobacco and exposure to anti-tobacco information, have the potential to influence susceptibility to smoking over a time.