Discrepant Results in Experimental Studies of Young Children's Understanding of Probability.
Discrepant Results in Experimental Studies of Young Children's Understanding of Probability.
复制标题
幼儿对概率的理解的实验研究结果不一致。
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-8624.1979.tb02474.x
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发表时间：
1979
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
J. Perner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Perner
佩纳，约瑟夫。幼儿对概率理解的实验研究结果不一致。儿童发展，1979年，50，1121-1127。使用了2个版本的微调器任务（2种颜色的磁盘上的指针）。在1中，受试者面对一个旋转器，他们必须预测两个事件中哪一个最有可能发生。在另一种情况下，受试者必须从2个旋转器中选择1个更有可能产生给定事件。以前的研究报告说，儿童发现前者的任务比后者更难。最近的研究未能复制这种性能差异。为了调和这些不一致的结果，提出了2个假设，并在2个实验中进行了检验。在实验一中，64名儿童从初中幼儿园到二年级的天主教学校。在实验2中，被试是96名参观技术博物馆的游客，年龄为4.1-8.2岁。在这两个实验中，都无法分离出获得两个版本之间性能差异所需的因素。必须得出结论，这种差异取决于以前的实验程序的一些特质特征。
PERNER, JOSEF. Discrepant Results in Experimental Studies of Young Children's Understanding of Probability. CHILD DEVELOPMENT, 1979, 50, 1121-1127. 2 versions of spinner tasks (pointers on disks of 2 colors) were used. In 1, subjects face a single spinner and they have to predict which 1 of 2 events is most likely to occur. In the other, subjects have to choose from 2 spinners that 1 which is more likely to produce a given event. Previous studies reported that children find the former task more difficult than the latter. More recent studies failed to replicate this performance difference. In order to reconcile these discrepant results 2 hypotheses were proposed and were tested in 2 experiments. In experiment 1, 64 children from junior kindergarten to grade 2 of a Catholic school were tested. In experiment 2, subjects were 96 visitors to a technical museum, aged 4.1-8.2 years. In neither experiment was it possible to isolate the factors necessary for obtaining the performance difference between the 2 versions. It must be concluded that this difference depends on some idiosyncratic features of previous experimental procedures.