Trends in AOD, Clouds, and Cloud Radiative Effects in Satellite Data and CMIP5 and CMIP6 Model Simulations Over Aerosol Source Regions
Trends in AOD, Clouds, and Cloud Radiative Effects in Satellite Data and CMIP5 and CMIP6 Model Simulations Over Aerosol Source Regions
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DOI：
10.1029/2020gl087132
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发表时间：
2020-05-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Quaas, Johannes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cherian, Ribu;Quaas, Johannes
在2001年以来的详细卫星观测期间，全世界几个区域的人为气溶胶排放量出现了显著趋势。在欧洲（欧元）和北美（NAM），出现了强劲的下降，在中国，先是上升后下降，在印度，出现了强劲的上升。在第五和第六耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5和CMIP 6）中，模式模拟的气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）和云辐射效应的区域趋势与欧洲、不结盟运动和印度大部分地区的卫星反演结果大致一致。CMIP6模型更好地匹配卫星得出的NAM西部（增加）和中国东部（减少）的气溶胶光学厚度趋势，CMIP5模型失败，指出改善人为气溶胶排放。在观测和模型中的液滴浓度趋势定性地匹配AOD趋势。然而，模型中太阳云辐射效应的结果是由于补偿误差造成的：模型未能再现观测到的液态水路径趋势，并反过来显示出云分数的相反趋势。
Several regions worldwide have seen significant trends in anthropogenic aerosol emissions during the period of detailed satellite observations since 2001. Over Europe (EUR) and North America (NAM) there were strong declines, over China increases then declines and over India, strong increases. Regional trends in model-simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) and cloud radiative effects in both the Fifth and Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6) are broadly consistent with the ones from satellite retrievals in most parts of EUR, NAM and India. CMIP6 models better match satellite-derived AOD trend in western NAM (increasing) and eastern China (decreasing), where CMIP5 models failed, pointing to improved anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Drop concentration trends in both observations and models qualitatively match AOD trends. The result for solar cloud radiative effect in models, however, is due to compensating errors: Models fail to reproduce observed liquid water path trends and show, in turn, opposite trends in cloud fraction.