Do fodder import and credit loans lead to climate resiliency in the pastoral social-ecological system of Inner Mongolia?
Do fodder import and credit loans lead to climate resiliency in the pastoral social-ecological system of Inner Mongolia?
复制标题
DOI：
10.5751/es-12245-260127
复制
发表时间：
2021-03
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Yanbo Li;Wenjun Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yanbo Li;Wenjun Li
主流政策鼓励牧民申请信贷贷款和投入外源饲料，以减轻气候多变和不确定性造成的压力。这种外部输入诱导新的驱动力耦合的牧区社会生态系统（SES），但他们的长期影响并没有得到充分的理解。以内蒙古苏尼特左旗为例，采用基于主体的模型和蒙特卡罗模拟方法，从牧民家庭生计、畜牧业生产和草地健康三个方面，评估了饲料进口和信贷贷款对牧区社会经济弹性的影响。结果表明，仅在自然灾害年进口饲料的策略可以使牧区社会经济对气候变化的适应能力增强，而在气候正常年频繁进口饲料则会增加牧区社会经济的脆弱性。信贷贷款可以提高一般的恢复力，如果饲料是不进口或只在灾害年进口，但可能会降低恢复力，如果饲料进口频繁。研究结果与以往饲料投入和信贷效应的研究存在一定差异，提示应从社会生态系统的角度对相关政策进行整体评价。
Mainstream policies encourage pastoralists to apply credit loans and input exogenous fodder to alleviate the stress caused by climatic variability and uncertainty. Such external inputs induce new driving forces to the coupled pastoral social-ecological system (SES), but their long-term impacts are not fully understood. Taking Sonid Left Banner of Inner Mongolia as a case study area, we applied an agent-based model and Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the impacts of fodder import and credit loans on the resilience of pastoral SES in terms of pastoralist household livelihood, livestock production, and rangeland health. The results showed that the strategy of importing fodder only in natural disaster years could make the pastoral SES more resilient to climatic variability, while frequent importing of fodder in climatically normal years would increase the vulnerability of the pastoral SES. Credit loans could enhance the resilience of the pastoral SES in general if fodder is not imported or only imported in disaster years, but could reduce the resilience if fodder is imported frequently. Our findings revealed several differences with previous research on fodder input and credit loan effects, indicating that relevant policies should be holistically evaluated from the perspective of social-ecological systems.