Kinds of Probability: Although there are at least five kinds of probability, we can get along with just one kind.
Kinds of Probability: Although there are at least five kinds of probability, we can get along with just one kind.
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概率的种类：虽然概率至少有五种，但我们只用一种就可以了。
DOI：
10.1126/science.129.3347.443
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发表时间：
1959
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
I. Good
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
I. Good
数学家、统计学家和哲学家用概率论做不同的事情。数学家发展了它的形式推论，统计学家应用了数学家的工作，哲学家概括地描述了这种应用所包含的内容。数学家开发象征性的工具，并不过分担心这些工具的用途；统计学家使用它们；哲学失败者谈论它们。如果每个人都对另外两个人的工作有所了解，他们的工作就会做得更好。是什么让哲学家们对概率感兴趣？主要的问题是，概率是否可以用自身以外的其他东西来定义，如果不能，概率的概念是如何使用的，它的意义是什么，意义的阴影是什么。我们能证实概率的存在吗，或者我们必须满意地说出它是如何使用的？意义的“使用”理论是否比“验证”理论更贴切？在我看来，哲学家的工作主要是描述一个人在他使用概率概念的确切时刻所做的事情或所想的事情。我们的主要问题是：是否存在不同种类的概率？这个问题类似于“有不同种类的生命吗？”从某种意义上说，生命有两种：动物和植物表；从另一种意义上说，有多少种就有多少种；还有一种--
The mathematician, the statistician, and the philosopher do different things with a theory of probability. The mathematician develops its formal consequences, the statistician applies the work of the mathematician, and the philosopher describes in general terms what this application consists in. The mathematician develops symbolic tools without worrying overmuch what the tools are for; the statistician uses them; the phi-losopher talks aboutthem. Each does his job better if he knows somethingabout the work of the other two. What is it about probability that has interested philosophers? Principally, it is the question whether probability can be defined in terms of something other than itself, and, if not, how the idea of probability is used, what is its meaning, what are the shades of meaning. Can we verify that probability exists, or must we be satisfied to say how it is used? Is the" use" theory of meaning more appro-priate than the" verification" theory? It seems to me that the philosopher's job is mainly to describe what a man does or thinks at the precise moment that he uses the idea of probability. Our main question is this: are there different kinds of probability? The question is analogous to the one" Are there different kinds of life?" Ina sense there are two kinds of life: animal and vege-table; in another sensethere are as many as there are genera or species; in yet an-