Limits of Predictability in Human Mobility
Limits of Predictability in Human Mobility
复制标题
DOI：
10.1126/science.1177170
复制
发表时间：
2010-02-19
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Song, Chaoming;Qu, Zehui;Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo
从预测人类和电子病毒的传播到移动通信中的城市规划和资源管理，一系列应用都取决于我们预测个人行踪和移动性的能力，这就提出了一个根本性的问题：人类行为在多大程度上是可预测的？在这里，我们通过研究匿名手机用户的移动模式来探索人类动态中可预测性的极限。通过测量每个人轨迹的熵，我们发现整个用户群体中用户移动性有93%的潜在可预测性。尽管出行模式存在显著差异，但我们发现可预测性的变异性显著缺乏，这在很大程度上与用户日常出行的距离无关。
A range of applications, from predicting the spread of human and electronic viruses to city planning and resource management in mobile communications, depend on our ability to foresee the whereabouts and mobility of individuals, raising a fundamental question: To what degree is human behavior predictable? Here we explore the limits of predictability in human dynamics by studying the mobility patterns of anonymized mobile phone users. By measuring the entropy of each individual's trajectory, we find a 93% potential predictability in user mobility across the whole user base. Despite the significant differences in the travel patterns, we find a remarkable lack of variability in predictability, which is largely independent of the distance users cover on a regular basis.