Impacts of climate change on heavy wet snowfall in Japan
Impacts of climate change on heavy wet snowfall in Japan
复制标题
气候变化对日本强湿降雪的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-020-05163-z
复制
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Sugimoto Soichiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ohba Masamichi;Sugimoto Soichiro
湿雪是大气结冰的主要原因，大气结冰可能导致电力塔和线路严重损坏，导致电力中断和停电。这项研究利用从未来气候变化政策决策数据库(D4PDF)获得的气候预测来调查气候变化对日本大湿雪事件的影响。在区域模式模拟中预测的未来气候显示湿降雪的空间分布不均匀。极端潮湿降雪的风险在日本北部阿尔卑斯山(日本中部的山区)和北海道(日本北部)被发现。自组织地图(SOM)被应用于利用地面大气环流来探索与大湿雪变化相关的天气模式(WPS)。SOM显示，一些WPS对日本强湿雪的强度、频率和位置有显著影响。此外，评估了气候强迫对与大湿雪相关的WPS的影响，以了解湿雪在空间上的异质性变化。SOM分析结果表明，空间非均匀极端湿降雪的未来变化可以归因于WP对气候变化的不同响应。这些差异可以归因于WPS之间在0°C(雨雪过渡层)附近大气层区域未来的变化，这可能会改变大湿雪的空间分布和频率。这些发现有助于为结构设计要求提供信息，以抵御区域气候变化。
Wet snow is a primary cause of atmospheric icing, which can lead to severe damage to power towers and lines, resulting in electrical breakdowns and blackouts. This study investigates the influence of climate change on heavy wet snowfall events in Japan by using climate projections obtained from the database for policy decision-making for future climate change (d4PDF). The projected future climate in the regional model simulations shows nonuniform spatial distribution of wet snowfall. The increases in the risk of extreme wet snowfall are found over northern part of Japan Alps (mountainous regions in central Japan) and Hokkaido (northern part of Japan). Self-organizing maps (SOMs) are applied using the surface atmospheric circulation to explore the weather patterns (WPs) associated with changes in heavy wet snowfall. The SOMs show that some WPs have a significant effect on the magnitude, frequency, and location of heavy wet snowfall in Japan. Additionally, the impact of climate forcing on WPs associated with heavy wet snowfall is evaluated to understand the spatially heterogeneous changes in wet snowfall. The SOM analysis results suggest that the future changes in spatially heterogeneous extreme wet snowfall can be attributed to differences in WP responses to climate change. These differences can be attributed to the future variations in the region of the atmospheric layer at temperatures near 0 °C (rain–snow transition layer) among WPs, which can alter the spatial distribution and frequency of heavy wet snowfall. The findings can help inform structural design requirements to withstand regional climate change.