Thinking the unthinkable – the end of the Dutch river dike system? Exploring a new safety concept for the river management
Thinking the unthinkable – the end of the Dutch river dike system? Exploring a new safety concept for the river management
复制标题
思考不可思议的事情——荷兰河堤系统的终结？探索河流管理的新安全概念
DOI：
10.1080/13669870210166185
复制
发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
B. Enserink
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Enserink
自1100年以来，荷兰人依靠他们不断扩大的广泛堤坝系统来保持干燥的脚和干燥的货物。但是，现在海平面正在上升，降雨模式似乎发生了变化，这种传统的堤防概念有多持久和安全呢？他们未来还能继续加高堤坝吗？还是应该给河流留出更多空间？在荷兰人心目中，堤坝越高越省钱。然而，在实践中，更高的堤坝可能会导致更高的风险，因为失败的后果会增加。荷兰公民的风险认知有什么问题？应该如何向公众传达风险，应该如何组织关于安全制度的公开辩论？在一个研究项目中，探索并交流了一种新的安全概念，即荷兰河流自由流动。为了重新确定这一问题的过渡路径，对这一新的安全管理制度进行了设想、影响研究和事前评估。一种新的安全模式似乎正在形成。背景情景表明，在什么情况下，荷兰公民和荷兰池塘居民可以接受频繁的洪灾。
Since 1100 the Dutch relied on their continuously expanding extensive dike system for keeping dry feet and dry goods. But how durable and safe is this traditional dike concept, now the sea-level is rising and rainfall patterns seem to change? Can they continue to raise their dikes in the future or should they give more room to the river? In the Dutch mind higher dikes are saver. In practice, however, higher dikes may lead to higher risks as the consequences of failure rise. What is wrong with the risk perception of the Dutch citizen? How should risks be communicated to the public, how should a public debate on safety regimes be organized? In a study project a new safety concept in which the Dutch rivers got a free flow was explored and communicated. In an effort to reframe the issue a transition path, scenarios, impact studies and ex ante evaluations of this new safety management regime were made. A new safety paradigm seems to be taking shape. Context scenarios show under what circumstances frequent flooding can be made acceptable to the Dutch citizen and the inhabitants of the Dutch polders.