Effects of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 on global climate in the next two centuries
Effects of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 on global climate in the next two centuries
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2001gl013359
复制
发表时间：
2001-12-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Washington, WM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dai, A;Wigley, TML;Washington, WM
先前的海洋-大气耦合模式模拟表明，与一切照旧情景相比，在CO2稳定情景下，到2100年全球变暖的减少程度仅为中等。为了进一步说明稳定CO2对全球气候的长期影响，我们整合了1870年至2200年的海洋-大气耦合模式，该模式由历史和预测的CO2，SO2和其他温室气体在最新更新的BAU和STA情景下强迫。我们的研究结果表明，到22（nd）世纪后期，CO2稳定导致的全球变暖的减少可能很大（全球范围内类似于1.5摄氏度，北方高纬度地区DJF高达12摄氏度）。稳定二氧化碳水平也会导致降水、土壤湿度和昼夜温差的变化减少。BAU和STA模式的变化是相似的所有变量检查。
Previous coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations showed that the reduction in global warming is only moderate by year 2100 under CO2 stabilization (STA) scenarios compared with that under business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. To further illustrate the long-term effect of stabilizing CO2 on global climate, we integrated a coupled ocean-atmosphere model from 1870 to 2200 forced by historical and projected CO2, SO2 and other greenhouse gases under newly updated BAU and STA scenarios. Our results show that the reduction in global warming resulting from CO2 stabilization could be large (similar to1.5 degreesC globally, and up to 12 degreesC in DJF at northern high-latitudes) by the later part of the 22(nd) century. Stabilizing the CO2 level also results in reduced changes in precipitation, soil moisture and diurnal temperature range. BAU and STA patterns of change are similar for all variables examined.