Characterizing biological responses to climate variability and extremes to improve biodiversity projections
Characterizing biological responses to climate variability and extremes to improve biodiversity projections
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pclm.0000226
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发表时间：
2023-06
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Lauren B. Buckley;E. Carrington;M. Dillon;C. García‐Robledo;S. Roberts;J. Wegrzyn;M. C. Urban
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文献类型：
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作者：
Lauren B. Buckley;E. Carrington;M. Dillon;C. García‐Robledo;S. Roberts;J. Wegrzyn;M. C. Urban
预测生态和进化对多变和不断变化的环境的反应是预测和管理对生物多样性和生态系统的影响的核心。目前的建模方法在很大程度上是现象学的，往往不能准确地预测响应，因为在不同的空间和时间尺度上，生物组织的多个层次上的许多生物过程对环境变化的响应。对生物体对环境变化和极端情况的反应机制的有限理解也限制了预测能力。我们概述了一种识别和建模跨生物组织水平的关键有机体机制的策略，这些机制介导了对环境变化的生态和进化反应。这一战略的一个核心组成部分是量化气候变化的时间尺度和幅度以及生物体如何经历这些变化。我们强调了最近建立这一信息的实证研究，并建议如何设计未来的实验，以产生更普遍的原则。我们讨论了如何通过结合统计和机械方法以可行的方式创建生物学信息预测。预测将在生态学、进化论和地球科学的界面上为基础和实际问题提供信息，例如生物体如何在多个层次空间和时间尺度上经历、适应和响应环境变化。
Projecting ecological and evolutionary responses to variable and changing environments is central to anticipating and managing impacts to biodiversity and ecosystems. Current modeling approaches are largely phenomenological and often fail to accurately project responses due to numerous biological processes at multiple levels of biological organization responding to environmental variation at varied spatial and temporal scales. Limited mechanistic understanding of organismal responses to environmental variability and extremes also restricts predictive capacity. We outline a strategy for identifying and modeling the key organismal mechanisms across levels of biological organization that mediate ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental variation. A central component of this strategy is quantifying timescales and magnitudes of climatic variability and how organisms experience them. We highlight recent empirical research that builds this information and suggest how to design future experiments that can produce more generalizable principles. We discuss how to create biologically informed projections in a feasible way by combining statistical and mechanistic approaches. Predictions will inform both fundamental and practical questions at the interface of ecology, evolution, and Earth science such as how organisms experience, adapt to, and respond to environmental variation at multiple hierarchical spatial and temporal scales.