Ten Years After the Soviet Breakup: The Primacy of History and Culture
Ten Years After the Soviet Breakup: The Primacy of History and Culture
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苏联解体十年后：历史和文化的首要地位
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发表时间：
2001
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通讯作者：
Z. Brzezinski
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作者：
Z. Brzezinski
当谈到曾经组成苏联的土地上的民主困境时，我们必须记住，我们谈论的是15个不同的国家，没有一个共同的答案可以涵盖所有这些国家。也就是说，我认为我们可以将这些国家分为三个基本类别。第一类是最先进的国家，它们显然正在成为稳定和安全的民主国家。这些国家包括拉脱维亚、立陶宛和爱沙尼亚这三个波罗的海共和国，它们越来越难以被认为与其他前苏联共和国属于同一政治背景。文化和历史的因素使这三个国家与其他国家有着根本的不同。至于剩下的12个国家，我们可以说，其中9个国家的民主只是名义上的，或者是当地统治者不情愿地认为他们必须挂在嘴边的一个口号，因为他们在经济和财政上依赖西方及其敏感性。中亚五国（哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦）加上阿塞拜疆、亚美尼亚、摩尔多瓦和白俄罗斯属于这一类。在这九个基本上不民主的国家和由波罗的海三国组成的民主集团之间，我们发现了第三个也是最模糊的类别，包括乌克兰，可能还有格鲁吉亚和俄罗斯本身。他们的政治制度是不稳定的独裁主义，但也是半无政府主义的，在这些制度中，民主机构在某些层面上运作，但在其他层面上却不存在。在这些国家，社会层面的民主运动必须与反压力作斗争。约翰霍普金斯大学尼采高级国际研究学院和战略与国际研究中心顾问。这篇文章是基于他在2001年7月9日接受《民主杂志》采访的内容。
When speaking of the plight of democracy in the lands that once made up the Soviet Union, we must remember that we are talking about 15 different states, and that no common answer will cover all of them. That said, I think we can sort these states into three basic categories. In the first category are the most advanced countries, clearly on their way to becoming stable and secure democracies. These include the three Baltic republics of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, which have become increasingly difficult to think of as belonging to the same political context as the other former Soviet republics. The elements of culture and history mark these three as fundamentally different from the others. Turning to the remaining dozen, we may say that nine are countries where democracy exists only nominally or as a slogan that the local rulers reluctantly feel they must mouth, given their economic and financial dependence on the West and its sensibilities. To this class belong the five Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan) plus Azerbaijan, Armenia, Moldova, and Belarus. In between these nine essentially nondemocratic states and the democratic group comprising the three Baltic states, we find the third and most ambiguous category, which contains Ukraine, probably Georgia, and Russia itself. Theirs are unstable authoritarian and yet also semi-anarchic political systems, in which democratic institutions operate at some levels but are absent at others. In these countries, the movement toward democracy on a societal level must contend with counterpressures Zbigniew Brzezinski, U.S. national security advisor during the Carter administration, is professor of U.S. foreign policy at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and counselor to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. This essay is based on an interview he gave to the Journal of Democracy on 9 July 2001.