Economic objectives, uncertainties and decision making in the energy sector
Economic objectives, uncertainties and decision making in the energy sector
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能源行业的经济目标、不确定性和决策
DOI：
10.1007/s11573-015-0785-1
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Jahn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Bischoff;J. Jahn
德国能源转型导致能源市场发生重大变化。技术创新、不断增长的技术和经济成熟度以及持续的优化使可再生能源的竞争力日益增强。在描述了能源部门适当的经济目标之后，本文强调了可再生能源领域决策中出现的困难。由于风能和太阳能领域的决策取决于良好的天气预报，因此本文重点关注风险和不确定性的处理。对于风力发电站，威布尔分布的凸组合被提出作为描述风速分布的通用模型。为了研究确定性不确定性，提出了一种方法，该方法最近针对特定情况而开发（Bischoff 等人，光伏电站多目标布局优化中的硬不确定性，2015），并且现在针对非动态不确定性集的标准情况制定了该方法。最后，提出了一种新的误差传播方法，该方法描述了风速误差向所得威布尔概率密度函数的传播。
The German Energiewende has led to serious changes on the energy market. Technological innovations, growing technical and economical maturity and ongoing optimizations make renewable energies increasingly competitive. After describing appropriate economic objectives in the energy sector, the present paper highlights the difficulties arising in decision making in the area of renewable energies. Since decisions in the field of wind and solar energy depend on good weather forecasts, this paper focuses on the treatment of risks and uncertainties. For a wind power station convex combinations of Weibull distributions are presented as a general model for the description of the distributions of wind speeds. For the investigation of deterministic uncertainties a method is proposed, which has been recently developed for a specific case (Bischoff et al., Hard uncertainties in multiobjective layout optimization of photovoltaic power plants, 2015) and which is now formulated for the standard case of non-dynamic uncertainty sets. Finally, a new approach of error propagation is presented, which describes the propagation of errors in wind speeds to the resulting Weibull probability density functions.
影响因子：
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作者：
Jonas Ide;E. Köbis;Daishi Kuroiwa;A. Schöbel;C. Tammer
通讯作者：
Jonas Ide;E. Köbis;Daishi Kuroiwa;A. Schöbel;C. Tammer