Effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk in North America
Effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk in North America
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DOI：
10.1007/s10393-004-0139-x
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发表时间：
2005-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Fish, Durland
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Brownstein, John S.;Holford, Theodore R.;Fish, Durland
了解气候变化对北美莱姆病主要病媒肩胛硬蜱的影响，是评估人类患该疾病风险空间分布变化的一个基本组成部分。我们使用了一种气候适宜性模型来研究全球气候变化对北美未来莱姆病风险的潜在影响。一个基于气候的逻辑模型首次被用来解释目前在北美的分布。然后应用气候变化情景来及时外推模型并建立预测向量。通过对大尺度环境数据与肩胛骨柱分布的空间关系建模，得出了目前北美肩胛骨柱分布模式，准确率为89% （P < 0.0001）。该模型的外推表明，到20世纪80年代，肩胛骨棘猴向北扩展到加拿大，适宜栖息地增加了213%。气候变化也将导致媒介从美国南部撤回并进入美国中部。本报告预测了气候变化对莱姆病风险的影响，并具体预测了加拿大出现的一种蜱传传染病。因此，我们的建模方法可以用来概述未来需要应用的控制策略和预防工作。
An understanding of the influence of climate change on Ixodes scapularis, the main vector of Lyme disease in North America, is a fundamental component in assessing changes in the spatial distribution of human risk for the disease. We used a climate suitability model of I. scapularis to examine the potential effects of global climate change on future Lyme disease risk in North America. A climate-based logistic model was first used to explain the current distribution of I. scapularis in North America. Climate-change scenarios were then applied to extrapolate the model in time and to forecast vector establishment. The spatially modeled relationship between L scapularis presence and large-scale environmental data generated the current pattern of I. scapularis across North America with an accuracy of 89% (P < 0.0001). Extrapolation of the model revealed a significant expansion of I. scapularis north into Canada with an increase in suitable habitat of 213% by the 2080s. Climate change will also result in a retraction of the vector from the southern U.S. and movement into the central U.S. This report predicts the effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk and specifically forecasts the emergence of a tickborne infectious disease in Canada. Our modeling approach could thus be used to outline where future control strategies and prevention efforts need to be applied.