Unemployment and suicide in Italy: evidence of a long-run association mitigated by public unemployment spending
Unemployment and suicide in Italy: evidence of a long-run association mitigated by public unemployment spending
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DOI：
10.1007/s10198-018-1018-7
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发表时间：
2019-06-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Pistoresi, Barbara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mattei, Giorgio;Pistoresi, Barbara
从20世纪90年代中期开始，意大利的自杀率稳步下降，然后在大衰退开始后又明显上升，同时失业率急剧上升。本研究的目的是通过协整技术来检验意大利自杀率与失业率（即1977-2015年期间男性和女性的失业率以及1983-2012年期间的长期失业率）之间的关系。该分析根据公共失业支出（指1980年至2012年期间）进行了调整。该研究确定了自杀率和长期失业之间的长期关系。另一方面，自杀和失业率之间的联系出现了，尽管统计上较弱。长期失业率每增加1%，自杀率就会增加0.83%，其长期影响会持续长达18年。公共失业支出（占意大利国内生产总值的百分比）可能会减轻这种联系：当其年增长率高于0.18%时，失业对自杀的影响是不可检测的。由于社会支出的增加，自杀率预计会下降，这可能能够弥补失业导致的社会融合水平的降低，帮助个人继续融入社会。由此推论，经济衰退时期的紧缩可能会加剧经济衰退对心理健康的影响。但是，具体的灵活保障制度（旨在结合高度就业保护、工作满意度和劳动力市场政策）可能对健康产生积极影响。
From the mid-1990s on, the suicide rate in Italy declined steadily, then apparently rose again after the onset of the Great Recession, along with a sharp increase in unemployment. The aim of this study is to test the association between the suicide rate and unemployment (i.e., the unemployment rate for males and females in the period 1977-2015, and the long-term unemployment rate in the period 1983-2012) in Italy, by means of cointegration techniques. The analysis was adjusted for public unemployment spending (referring to the period 1980-2012). The study identified a long-run relationship between the suicide rate and long-term unemployment. On the other hand, an association between suicide and unemployment rate emerged, though statistically weaker. A 1% increase in long-term unemployment increases the suicide rate by 0.83%, with a long-term effect lasting up to 18 years. Public unemployment spending (as percentage of the Italian gross domestic product) may mitigate this association: when its annual growth rate is higher than 0.18%, no impact of unemployment on suicide in detectable. A decrease in the suicide rate is expected for higher amounts of social spending, which may be able to compensate for the reduced level of social integration resulting from unemployment, helping the individual to continue to integrate into society. A corollary of this is that austerity in times of economic recession may exacerbate the impact of the economic downturn on mental health. However, a specific flexicurity system (intended as a combination of high employment protection, job satisfaction and labour-market policies) may have a positive impact on health.