Global Real Estate Markets: Cycles and Fundamentals
Global Real Estate Markets: Cycles and Fundamentals
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全球房地产市场：周期和基本面
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.157019
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Rouwenhorst
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Case;W. Goetzmann;K. Rouwenhorst
鉴于国际真实的房地产市场的分割程度，它们之间的相关性高得惊人。虽然工业、办公和零售物业存在于世界各地，但由于地理位置的特殊性，它们并不是经济替代品。此外，直到最近，真实的房地产公司的广泛证券化一直落后于其他类型的公司。尽管如此，国际房地产回报率仍以戏剧性的方式一起移动。在本文中，我们使用11年的全球房地产回报率来探讨影响这种联动的因素。我们将全球房地产市场的大量相关性归因于GNP变化的影响，这表明真实的房地产是对各国相关的基本经济变量的押注。分解表明，当地生产要素在某些国家比在其他国家更重要。
The correlations among international real estate markets are surprisingly high, given the degree to which they are segmented. While industrial, office and retail properties exist all around the world, they are not economic substitutes because of locational specificity. In addition, the broad securitization of real estate property companies has, until recently, lagged that of other types of companies. Never-the-less, international property returns move together in dramatic fashion. In this paper, we use eleven years of global property returns to explore the factors influencing this co-movement. We attribute a substantial amount of the correlation across world property markets to the effects of changes in GNP, suggesting that real estate is a bet on fundamental economic variables which are correlated across countries. A decomposition shows that a local production factor is more important in some countries than in others.