An index of risk of co-occurrence between marine mammals and watercraft: Example of the Florida manatee
An index of risk of co-occurrence between marine mammals and watercraft: Example of the Florida manatee
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DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2012.10.031
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发表时间：
2013-03-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Fagan, Daniel E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bauduin, Sarah;Martin, Julien;Fagan, Daniel E.
野生动物和车辆之间的碰撞是许多物种死亡的主要原因。为了实施有效的保护区，重要的是要确定可能发生野生动物与车辆碰撞的区域。我们使用统计模型来推导海牛和船只之间的风险指数。我们的统计模型用于预测海牛和船只的分布，同时考虑特定的检测概率。模型使用航空调查数据，我们发现，环境和时间的协变量影响海牛和船的分布。此外，发现海牛的概率随天气和观察者的不同而变化很大。据我们所知，这是第一次，海牛分布建模为关键的环境和季节协变量的函数，同时占海牛的不完善的检测。我们计算了一个共同发生的风险指数乘以预期的船密度和占用海牛占用的概率，以确定海牛船碰撞可能发生的地区。这个分析框架强调了不完美检测的重要性，以及如何将生物体和车辆的分布建模为关键协变量的函数，可以帮助改善碰撞风险的预测。然后，可以在设计保护区时使用碰撞风险度量。(C)2012爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Collisions between wildlife and vehicles represent a large source of mortality for many species. To implement effective protection zones, it is important to identify areas in which wildlife-vehicle collisions are likely to occur. We used statistical models to derive an index of risk of co-occurrence between manatees and boats. Our statistical models were used to predict the distribution of both manatees and boats, while accounting for observer-specific detection probabilities. Models used aerial survey data and we found that both environmental and temporal covariates influenced manatee and boat distributions. Moreover, the probability of detecting manatees varied substantially with the weather and among observers. To our knowledge, this is the first time that manatee distribution is modeled as a function of key environmental and seasonal covariates, while accounting for imperfect detection of manatees. We computed an index of risk of co-occurrence by multiplying the probability of manatee occupancy by the expected boat density and occupancy to identify areas where manatee-boat collisions are likely to occur. This analytical framework emphasizes the importance of accounting for imperfect detection, and how modeling distribution of both organisms and vehicles as a function of key covariates can help improve predictions of risk of collisions. Risk of collision metrics can then be used in designing protection zones. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.