Potential changes in skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) habitat from a global warming scenario:: modelling approach and preliminary results
Potential changes in skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) habitat from a global warming scenario:: modelling approach and preliminary results
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1365-2419.2003.00241.x
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发表时间：
2003-09-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Lehodey, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Loukos, H;Monfray, P;Lehodey, P
最近的研究表明，由于大气二氧化碳浓度增加导致全球变暖条件下海洋环流的变化，热带海洋的初级生产减少。这可能影响中高营养水平鱼类的生产力，对热带金枪鱼等海洋资源造成潜在后果。在这里，我们将最新气候和海洋生物地球化学模型的预测与基于猎物丰度和环境温度的鱼类栖息地表示的最新概念结合起来，以深入了解气候变化对鲣鱼（Katsuwonus pelamis）的影响，该物种在当今的金枪鱼捕捞中占主导地位。对于一个大气二氧化碳浓度加倍的世界，我们的研究结果表明，赤道太平洋的鲣鱼栖息地发生了重大的大规模变化。在日期变更线以东，赤道西太平洋目前有利的生境带的扩大可以改善条件，这一特点使人想起与厄尔尼诺事件有关的变暖条件。尽管其简单和相关的基本假设，第一个模拟被用来强调未来的研究方向和关键问题，模拟发展与全球变化有关。
Recent studies suggest a reduction of primary production in the tropical oceans because of changes in oceanic circulation under global warming conditions caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. This might affect the productivity of medium and higher trophic levels with potential consequences on marine resources such as tropical tuna. Here we combine the projections of up-to-date climate and ocean biogeochemical models with recent concepts of representation of fish habitat based on prey abundance and ambient temperature to gain some insight into the impact of climate change on skipjack tuna ( Katsuwonus pelamis), the species that dominates present-day tuna catch. For a world with doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration, our results suggest significant large-scale changes of skipjack habitat in the equatorial Pacific. East of the date line, conditions could be improved by an extension of the present favourable habitat zones of the western equatorial Pacific, a feature reminiscent of warming conditions associated with El Nino events. Despite its simplicity and the associated underlying hypothesis, this first simulation is used to stress future research directions and key issues for modelling developments associated to global change.