Why has burglary declined by 80 percent across four decades in the United States? Evidence relating to the security hypothesis
Why has burglary declined by 80 percent across four decades in the United States? Evidence relating to the security hypothesis
复制标题
为什么美国的入室盗窃案在过去 40 年里下降了 80%？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Farrell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Farrell
在过去的四十年里，美国住宅盗窃案下降了80%，这是一个主要的现象，在很大程度上仍然无法解释。国际研究表明，有理由对安全假设进行调查。家庭安全的一般信息的缺乏意味着本研究确定和询问信息的入室盗窃的研究在过去的50年。当这些研究按时间顺序进行检查时，一个支离破碎但一致的叙述出现了。它表明，1970年代以前基本上没有家庭安全，但自那时以来，随着时间的推移，家庭安全的普及率、质量和日常使用都有所提高，而犯罪造成的流离失所已变得不那么常见。通过逮捕数据检查，窃贼人口的减少和老龄化也与家庭安全改善的影响一致。该研究的结论是，有很好的初步证据支持安全假设，并保证进一步的研究。
The 80 percent decline in residential burglary in the United States across the last four decades is a major phenomenon that remains largely unexplained. International research suggests there are grounds for investigation of the security hypothesis. The paucity of general information on household security means the present study identifies and interrogates information from burglary studies conducted in the last 50 years. When such studies are examined chronologically, a fragmented but consistent narrative emerges. It indicates that household security was largely absent prior to the 1970s but has since increased in prevalence, quality and routine use over time, while crime displacement has become less common. The shrinking and aging of the population of burglars, examined via arrest data, is also consistent with the effects of household security improvements. The study concludes that there is good preliminary evidence in support of the security hypothesis, and that further research is warranted.