The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere.
The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere.
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动态诱发的变异在北半球近期变暖趋势放缓中的作用
DOI：
10.1038/srep12669
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发表时间：
2015-07-30
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Lin P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guan X;Huang J;Guo R;Lin P
自20世纪90年代末地表气温上升趋势减缓以来，人们对人类活动对前几十年观测到的变暖的贡献产生了强烈的兴趣和辩论。尽管对变暖趋势减缓提出了几种解释，但没有一种被普遍接受。我们调查的WTS使用最近开发的方法，可以成功地识别和分离的动态诱导和辐射强迫SAT的变化，从原始SAT数据。在间断过程中，相对于调整后的SAT的变暖效应，动力引起的SAT变化表现出明显的冷却效应。相关分析表明，这些变化主要受北大西洋涛动（NAO）、太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）和大西洋年代际涛动（AMO）的影响。我们的研究结果证实，动态引起的变异性造成的WTS。辐射强迫的SAT变化主要由人为强迫决定，表明温室气体（GHGs）的变暖影响，在间断期达到400 ppm的水平。因此，全球卫星定位系统不会永远保持中立。当自然模态在下一个时期返回到变暖阶段时，增加的辐射强迫SAT将被增加的动力诱导SAT放大。
Since the slowing of the trend of increasing surface air temperature (SAT) in the late 1990 s, intense interest and debate have arisen concerning the contribution of human activities to the warming observed in previous decades. Although several explanations have been proposed for the warming-trend slowdown (WTS), none has been generally accepted. We investigate the WTS using a recently developed methodology that can successfully identify and separate the dynamically induced and radiatively forced SAT changes from raw SAT data. The dynamically induced SAT changes exhibited an obvious cooling effect relative to the warming effect of the adjusted SAT in the hiatus process. A correlation analysis suggests that the changes are dominated primarily by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Our results confirm that dynamically induced variability caused the WTS. The radiatively forced SAT changes are determined mainly by anthropogenic forcing, indicating the warming influence of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which reached levels of 400 ppm during the hiatus period. Therefore, the global SAT will not remain permanently neutral. The increased radiatively forced SAT will be amplified by increased dynamically induced SAT when the natural mode returns to a warming phase in the next period.