Spatial and temporal variations of malaria epidemic risk in Ethiopia: factors involved and implications
Spatial and temporal variations of malaria epidemic risk in Ethiopia: factors involved and implications
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DOI：
10.1016/s0001-706x(03)00123-2
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发表时间：
2003-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Habbema, JDF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abeku, TA;van Oortmarssen, GJ;Habbema, JDF
本研究的目的是描述埃塞俄比亚疟疾流行风险的空间和时间变化，并研究与其对预警和地理风险模型解释的影响有关的因素。1986年9月至1993年8月期间，在不同地区确定了48起流行病事件，并利用卫生设施记录和天气数据调查了可能导致这些事件的因素。研究表明，特定年份的流行病与特定的地理区域有关。1988年的一次重大流行病影响到高地，而1991年和1992年的流行病影响到裂谷悬崖上的高地边缘地区以及该国南部和西北部地区。疟疾流行之前的一个月的异常高的最低温度在前3个月比基于随机的机会，而异常低的最低温度流行前的频率显着低于预期。最高气温和降雨量的异常增加与疫情的发生无正相关。前几个传播季节的低发病率可能加剧了这些事件，这可能是由于受影响人群的免疫水平低。流行病风险是一种动态现象，其决定性因素（包括风险地区的天气和其他生态流行病学特征）的时间变化基于不断变化的地理格局。流行病预警系统应考虑这些因素在空间和时间上的非均匀影响，因此在流行病风险的空间模型中需要考虑时间维度。(C)2003 Elsevier Science B.V.保留所有权利。
The aim Of this Study was to describe spatial and temporal variations in malaria epidemic risk in Ethiopia and to examine factors involved in relation to their implications for early warning and interpretation of geographical risk models. Forty-eight epidemic episodes were identified in various areas between September 1986 and August 1993 and factors that might have led to the events investigated using health facility records and weather data. The study showed that epidemics in specific years were associated with specific geographical areas. A major epidemic in 1988 affected the highlands whereas epidemics in 1991 and 1992 affected highland-fringe areas on the escarpments of the Rift Valley and in southern and north-western parts of the country. Malaria epidemics were significantly more often preceded by a month of abnormally high minimum temperature in the preceding 3 months than based on random chance, whereas frequency of abnormally low minimum temperature prior to epidemics was significantly lower than expected. Abnormal increases of maximum temperature and rainfall had no positive association with the epidemics. A period of low incidence during previous transmission seasons might have aggravated the events, possibly due to low level of immunity in affected populations. Epidemic risk is a dynamic phenomenon with changing geographic pattern based oil temporal variations in determinant factors including weather and other eco-epidemiological characteristics of areas at risk. Epidemic early warning systems should take account of non-uniform effects of these factors by space and time and thus temporal dimensions need to be considered in spatial models of epidemic risks. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.