Can Displaced Labor Be Retrained? Evidence from Quasi-Random Assignment to Trade Adjustment Assistance
Can Displaced Labor Be Retrained? Evidence from Quasi-Random Assignment to Trade Adjustment Assistance
复制标题
流离失所的劳动力可以接受再培训吗？
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3155386
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Benjamin Hyman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Benjamin Hyman
鉴于来自贸易和自动化的压力越来越大，工人们在多大程度上适应劳动力市场的中断引起了广泛关注。然而，令人惊讶的是，人们对刻意针对调整过程的努力知之甚少。这个项目研究了20年来工人水平的收入和再就业对贸易调整援助(TAA)的反应--TAA是美国规模最大、持续时间最长的再培训公共激励计划。我估计了将TAA病例准随机分配给不同批准宽大程度的调查人员的因果效应。使用300,000名失业工人的雇主-雇员匹配人口普查数据，我发现TAA的初始回报很大。十年后，在更高的收入和更多的劳动力参与的推动下，接受过TAA培训的工人的累计收入高出5万美元。然而，十年后，年回报率会完全贬值。TAA似乎对正规教育没有影响，而且递减的回报集中在培训期限较短的州。再加上有证据表明，影响是由培训而不是失业保险转移推动的，TAA似乎增加了人力资本的暂时性组成部分，而不是永久性组成部分。回流进一步集中在最混乱的地区，那里的工人更有可能跳槽，转移到有更好机会的劳动力市场，以应对培训-这与调整摩擦是一致的。
The extent to which workers adjust to labor market disruptions in light of increasing pressure from trade and automation commands widespread concern. However, surprisingly little is known about efforts that deliberately target the adjustment process. This project studies 20 years of worker-level earnings and re-employment responses to Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) — the United States’ largest and longest standing public incentive program for retraining. I estimate causal effects from the quasi-random assignment of TAA cases to investigators of varying approval leniencies. Using employer-employee matched Census data on 300,000 displaced workers, I find large initial returns to TAA. Ten years out, TAA-trained workers have $50,000 higher cumulative earnings, driven by both higher incomes and greater labor force participation. Yet annual returns fully depreciate after ten years. TAA appears to have no effect on formal education, and decaying returns are concentrated in states with lower training durations. Combined with evidence that effects are driven by training rather than unemployment insurance transfers, TAA appears to augment transient rather than permanent components of human capital. Returns are further concentrated in the most disrupted regions, where workers are more likely to switch industries and move to labor markets with better opportunities in response to training — consistent with adjustment frictions.