The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios
The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios
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DOI：
10.1162/asep_a_00796
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发表时间：
2021-06-01
影响因子：
9.7
通讯作者：
Fernando, Roshen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McKibbin, Warwick;Fernando, Roshen
新冠肺炎疫情不仅扰乱了中国经济，而且正在向全球蔓延。这种疾病的演变及其经济影响具有高度不确定性，因此制定适当的宏观经济政策具有挑战性。本文使用全球混合DSGE/CGE一般均衡模型探讨了COVID-19的七种可能情景及其宏观经济结果。研究结果表明，即使疫情得到控制，也可能在短期内对全球经济产生重大影响。在所有经济体，特别是在卫生保健系统欠发达和人口密度高的经济体，加大对公共卫生系统的投资可以大大避免经济成本。
COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain, making formulation of appropriate macroeconomic policy responses challenging. This paper explores seven plausible scenarios of COVID-19 and the macroeconomic outcomes using a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The results demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. Economic costs could be significantly avoided with greater investment in public health systems in all economies, particularly in economies where health care systems are less developed and population density is high.