Positive Phase of Pacific Meridional Mode Enhanced Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in Summer 2018
Positive Phase of Pacific Meridional Mode Enhanced Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in Summer 2018
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DOI：
10.2151/sola.15a-010
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发表时间：
2019-07
期刊：
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Y. Takaya
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Takaya
2018年北方夏季（6 ~ 8月），西北太平洋热带气旋（TC、台风）活动显著增强；18个被命名的台风产生，其中13个靠近日本，给日本造成了严重的破坏和破坏。2018年夏季，热带东北太平洋海面温度持续偏暖，为太平洋经向模态正相的典型海洋条件，但未观测到El Niño条件。日本气象厅的季节预报系统成功地预报了西海高压带的TC活动增强，以及相关的季节特征，如季风槽深和对流活跃。敏感性实验结果清楚地表明，2018年夏季PMM正相位在建立WNP活跃的TC条件中发挥了主要作用，并揭示了2018年夏季无El Niño时TC活动的可预测季节过程（成因和轨迹）。(引文：Takaya， Y.， 2019：太平洋经向模态正相位增强了2018年夏季北太平洋西部热带气旋活动。太阳能学报，2015,55−59,doi:10.2151/ solar .15A-010。
The western North Pacific (WNP) exhibited markedly enhanc ed tropical cyclone (TC, typhoon) activity during the boreal summer (June–August) of 2018; 18 named typhoons were generated and 13 of these approached near Japan, causing serious damage and disruption in the country. During the summer of 2018, warm sea surface temperature persisted over the tropical Northeastern Pacific, which are typical oceanic conditions of a positive phase of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), while no El Niño condition was observed. The Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal forecast system successfully predicted the enhanced TC activity in the WNP as well as associated seasonal characteristics such as a deep monsoon trough and active convection. Results of sensitivity experiments clearly indicate that the positive phase of the PMM played a major role in establishing the active TC conditions in the WNP during the summer of 2018 and reveal predictable seasonal processes of TC activity (genesis and tracks) during the summer of 2018, when there was no El Niño. (Citation: Takaya, Y., 2019: Positive phase of Pacific meridional mode enhanced western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in summer 2018. SOLA, 15A, 55−59, doi:10.2151/sola.15A-010.)