Disruptive Democratization: Contentious Events and Liberalizing Outcomes Globally, 1990–2004
Disruptive Democratization: Contentious Events and Liberalizing Outcomes Globally, 1990–2004
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破坏性民主化：全球范围内有争议的事件和自由化结果，1990-2004 年
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发表时间：
2016
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Neal Caren
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Kadivar;Neal Caren
摘要：有争议的集体行动重要吗？虽然大多数社会运动文献都在美国的背景下为政策变化结果解决了这个问题，但本文采取了一种不同的方法，将这个问题置于全球背景下，并将民主化作为一种结构性结果进行研究。因此，我们检验了几个关于有争议的集体行动对特定国家民主化进程的短暂、积极和消极影响的假设，以及这种争论的跨界效应。为了超越以往研究的局限，本文使用了一个月时间序列的跨国模型来检验抗议活动的潜在自由化或深思熟虑的影响。利用1990年至2004年103个非民主国家的数据，我们发现，抗议和骚乱增加了一个国家在给定月份实现自由化的可能性。我们发现，虽然其他国家的争议性事件不会直接增加自由化的风险，但外部争议性事件，特别是那些导致政治自由化的事件，增加了争议性事件的数量，从而间接促进了自由化。我们没有发现任何证据表明，抗议活动显著增加了审议的机会。总而言之，我们的发现表明，非精英政治行为者在影响政治自由化方面发挥了关键作用。
Abstract:Does contentious collective action matter? Whereas most social movement literature has addressed this question in the US context for policy change outcomes, this paper takes a different approach by bringing the question to a global context and examines democratization as a structural outcome. Accordingly, we test several hypotheses about the ephemeral, positive, and negative influences of contentious collective action on the democratization process in a given country, as well as the cross-border effect of the contention. To go beyond the limitations of previous studies, this paper uses a monthly time-series, cross-national model to examine potential liberalizing or deliberalizing effects of protest activities. Using data from 103 non-democratic countries from 1990 to 2004, we find that protests and riots increase the probability that a country will liberalize in a given month. We find that while contentious events in other countries do not directly increase the risk of liberalization, external contentious events, especially those that lead to political liberalization, increase the count of contentious events, thus indirectly boosting liberalization. We find no evidence that protest significantly increases the chances of deliberalization. Together, our findings show a key role for non-elite political actors to influence political liberalization.