Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Counterfactuals Method
Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Counterfactuals Method
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经济增长和政治一体化：使用综合反事实方法估计欧盟成员资格的好处
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Moretti
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Campos;F. Coricelli;L. Moretti
本文对经济和政治一体化的经济效益提出了新的估计。使用合成反事实方法，我们估计了在1973年、1980年代、1995年和2004年扩大时加入欧盟（EU）的国家的人均GDP和劳动生产率的表现，如果这些国家没有加入欧盟。我们发现，欧盟成员国身份带来了巨大的积极影响，但这些影响在不同国家和不同时期都有所不同（它们只对希腊有负面影响）。我们计算出，如果没有深度的经济和政治一体化，人均收入平均将下降约12%。
This paper presents new estimates of the economic benefits from economic and political integration. Using the synthetic counterfactuals method, we estimate how GDP per capita and labour productivity would have behaved for the countries that joined the European Union (EU) in the 1973, 1980s, 1995 and 2004 enlargements, if those countries had not joined the EU. We find large positive effects from EU membership but these differ across countries and over time (they are only negative for Greece). We calculate that without deep economic and political integration, per capita incomes would have been, on average, approximately 12 percent lower.