1. The Scientific Model of Causality
1. The Scientific Model of Causality
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1. 因果关系的科学模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Heckman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Heckman
因果关系是一个非常直观的概念，很难在不陷入同义反复的情况下使其精确。任何定义都有两个核心要素：（1）由一组“因素”或“决定因素”的函数产生的一组可能的结果（反事实）;（2）改变一个（或多个）“因素”或“决定因素”的操纵。一个效应被实现为一个稳定函数的参数的变化，该函数对一类干预措施的结果产生相同的变化，这些干预措施以相同的量改变“因素”。结果在不同水平的因素或生成变量进行比较。保持所有的因素，除了一个在一个恒定的水平，在结果的变化与操纵的变化因素被称为一个因果效应的操纵因素。这个定义，或者说它的某种版本，可以追溯到密尔（1848）和马歇尔（1890）。Haavelmo（1943）在线性方程模型的背景下使其更加精确。短语“ceteris paribus”（其他一切保持不变）是经济分析的支柱
Causality is a very intuitive notion that is difficult to make precise without lapsing into tautology. Two ingredients are central to any definition: (1) a set of possible outcomes (counterfactuals) generated by a function of a set of ‘‘factors’’ or ‘‘determinants’’ and (2) a manipulation where one (or more) of the ‘‘factors’’ or ‘‘determinants’’ is changed. An effect is realized as a change in the argument of a stable function that produces the same change in the outcome for a class of interventions that change the ‘‘factors’’ by the same amount. The outcomes are compared at different levels of the factors or generating variables. Holding all factors save one at a constant level, the change in the outcome associated with manipulation of the varied factor is called a causal effect of the manipulated factor. This definition, or some version of it, goes back to Mill (1848) and Marshall (1890). Haavelmo’s (1943) made it more precise within the context of linear equations models. The phrase ‘ceteris paribus’ (everything else held constant) is a mainstay of economic analysis
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.96.8.4730
发表时间：
1999-04-13
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Heckman, JJ;Vytlacil, EJ
通讯作者：
Vytlacil, EJ