A Process-Based Approach to Estimate Chinese Fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) Distribution and Productivity in Southern China under Climate Change
A Process-Based Approach to Estimate Chinese Fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) Distribution and Productivity in Southern China under Climate Change
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DOI：
10.3390/f6020360
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发表时间：
2015-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Wang, Guangyu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lu, Yuhao;Coops, Nicholas C.;Wang, Guangyu
考虑到杉木的生态和经济重要性，了解杉木在气候变化下的分布和生产力是至关重要的。最近，基于过程的生长模型由于其简单性和数据可用性而越来越受欢迎，并且越来越多地用于绘制树种的分布和生产力。本文研究了在气候变化条件下，当前范围的变化程度和物种的生产力。我们使用了预测生长的生理原理（3-PG）模型，该模型计算了气候变量影响物种光合作用和生长的程度。然后将这些变量用于决策树模型，以制定规则，为预测当前气候条件下物种的分布提供基础。一旦建立了分布模型，就可以对该物种的生产力进行评估。利用气候预测，我们模拟了未来的增长和分布。结果表明，从目前的范围向北移动。该增长模型还表明，在一些现有的分布区域，主要是在中国中部，新出现的林分的生产力预计有限。我们的结论是，这种双重建模方法有可能量化气候变化对选定物种的影响，并检查气候预测对范围和生产力估计的差异。
Understanding the distribution and productivity of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) under climate change is critical given the ecological and economic importance of the species. Recently, process-based growth models have grown in their popularity given their simplicity and data availability, and they are increasingly being used to map the distribution and productivity of tree species. In this paper, we study the extent of variation of the current range shift and the productivity of the species under a changing climate. We used the Physiological Principles in Predicting Growth (3-PG) model, which calculates the extent to which climatic variables affect photosynthesis and growth of a species. These variables were then used in a decision-tree model to develop rules to provide a basis for predicting the distribution of the species under current climatic conditions. Once the distribution model was developed the productivity of the species was then assessed. Using climate projections we then simulated the growth and distribution into the future. Results indicate a northward shift from the current range. The growth model also indicates minor increases in productivity in some of the existing distribution areas, principally in central China with limited productivity predicted in newly emerged stands. We conclude that this dual modeling approach has potential to quantify impacts of climate change on selected species and examining differences in climate projections on range and productivity estimation.