Collision risk modelling for tidal energy devices: A flexible simulation-based approach
Collision risk modelling for tidal energy devices: A flexible simulation-based approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111484
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发表时间：
2021-01-15
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
Kregting, Louise T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Horne, Nicholas;Culloch, Ross M.;Kregting, Louise T.
随着各国努力实现《巴黎协定》中规定的气候目标，海洋可再生能源产业正在不断扩张。对于潮汐能装置，动物与装置碰撞的潜在风险，特别是其运动部件（例如转子叶片），通常是同意过程中的主要障碍。围绕碰撞风险的理论工作通常使用公式化建模方法。然而，虽然提供了评估传统水平轴潮汐涡轮机的平台，但所应用的框架缺乏整合新颖设备设计或更复杂的动物运动参数（例如潜水轨迹）的灵活性。为了演示基于模拟的新颖的碰撞概率估计方法，使用假设案例研究来演示该方法如何评估生态和行为数据的变化对碰撞概率的影响。为此，我们对沿 3D 8 字形轨迹移动的潮汐风筝和海豹形状的物体进行了建模，并改变了动物的接近角度、速度和大小。为了进一步改进碰撞风险估计，通过整合假设的潜水剖面对模拟结果进行了后处理。模拟显示了输入参数的变化和附加后处理如何影响碰撞概率。我们的结果证明了使用这种基于模拟的方法来评估碰撞风险的潜力，强调了它通过结合经验数据或专家启发来更好地为建模过程提供信息所提供的灵活性。该框架中，设备类型、配置和动物相关参数可以根据具体情况相对简单地进行变化，为评估海洋可再生能源开发和受体之间的各种相互作用提供了更量身定制的工具。通过提供稳健且透明的定量方法来解决碰撞风险，这种灵活的方法可以更好地为决策过程提供信息，并有助于以可持续方式发展可再生能源行业。因此，概述的方法具有与许多利益相关者相关的明确应用，可以有助于我们确保海洋可再生能源行业实现可持续增长的能力，作为应对气候变化全球战略的一部分。
The marine renewable energy industry is expanding as countries strive to reach climate targets as set out in the Paris Agreement. For tidal energy devices, the potential risk for animals to collide with a device, particularly its moving parts such as rotor blades, is often a major barrier in the consenting process. Theoretical work surrounding collision risk has commonly made use of a formulaic modelling approach. However, whilst providing a platform to assess conventional horizontal axis tidal turbines, the frameworks applied lack the flexibility to incorporate novel device designs or more complex animal movement parameters (e.g. dive trajectories). To demonstrate the novel simulation-based approach to estimating collision probabilities a hypothetical case study was used to demonstrated how the approach can assess the influence that variations in ecological and behavioural data had on collision probabilities. To do this, a tidal kite moving in a 3D figure-of-eight trajectory and a seal-shaped object were modelled and variations to angle of approach, speed and size of the animal were made. To further improve the collision risk estimates, results of the simulations were post-processed by integrating a hypothetical dive profile. The simulations showed how variation in the input parameters and additional post processing influence collision probabilities. Our results demonstrate the potential for using this simulation based approach for assessing collision risk, highlighting the flexibility it offers by way of incorporating empirical data or expert elicitation to better inform the modelling process. This framework, where device type, configuration and animal-related parameters can be varied with relative simplicity, on a case-by-case basis, provides a more tailored tool for assessing a diverse range of interactions between marine renewable energy developments and receptors. In providing a robust and transparent quantitative approach to addressing collision risk this flexible approach can better inform the decision-making process and aid progress with respect to developing a renewable energy industry in a sustainable manner. Therefore, the approach outlined has clear applications that are relevant to many stakeholders and can contribute to our ability to ensure we achieve sustainable growth in the marine renewable energy industry as part of a global strategy to combat climate change.