Lutzomyia vectors for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Southern Brazil:: ecological niche models, predicted geographic distributions, and climate change effects
Lutzomyia vectors for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Southern Brazil:: ecological niche models, predicted geographic distributions, and climate change effects
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DOI：
10.1016/s0020-7519(03)00094-8
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发表时间：
2003-08-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Shaw, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peterson, AT;Shaw, J
利用生态位模型分析了三种皮肤利什曼病媒介Lutzomyia白蛉在南美洲的地理和生态分布。这一新工具提供了一个大规模的视角，了解物种的地理分布，决定它们的生态和历史因素，以及它们随着预期环境变化而变化的潜力。作为第一步，该技术预测这三个物种的地理分布的能力进行了统计测试，使用两个子采样技术：随机选择技术，模拟50%的数据密度，和基于象限的技术，挑战的方法预测到广泛的未采样区域。两种检验方案下的预测性具有高度统计学显著性。生态位的可视化提供了深入了解物种之间的分布差异的生态基础。对全球气候变化情景下潜在地理分布的预测表明，只有Lutzomyia whitmani可能在巴西东南部的条件下经历显著改善，那里的皮肤利什曼病似乎正在重新出现; Lutzomyia intermedia和Lutzomyia migonei可能在气候条件下看到更微妙的改善，但影响并不直接。更一般地说，这种技术提供了新的观点的可能性，疾病，媒介和水库物种的分布生态。(C)2003年澳大利亚寄生虫学会由Elsevier Science Ltd.出版，版权所有。
Geographic and ecological distributions of three Lutzomyia sand flies that are cutaneous leishmaniasis vectors in South America were analysed using ecological niche modelling. This new tool provides a large-scale perspective on species' geographic distributions, ecological and historical factors determining them, and their potential for change with expected environmental changes. As a first step, the ability of this technique to predict geographic distributions of the three species was tested statistically using two subsampling techniques: a random-selection technique that simulates 50% data density, and a quadrant-based technique that challenges the method to predict into broad unsampled regions. Predictivity under both test schemes was highly statistically significant. Visualisation of ecological niches provided insights into the ecological basis for distributional differences among species. Projections of potential geographic distributions across scenarios of global climate change suggested that only Lutzomyia whitmani is likely to be experiencing dramatic improvements in conditions in south-eastern Brazil, where cutaneous leishmaniasis appears to be re-emerging; Lutzomyia intermedia and Lutzomyia migonei may be seeing more subtle improvements in climatic conditions, but the implications are not straightforward. More generally, this technique offers the possibility of new views into the distributional ecology of disease, vector, and reservoir species. (C) 2003 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.