The Predictive Value of Discrete Choice Experiments in Public Health: An Exploratory Application.
The Predictive Value of Discrete Choice Experiments in Public Health: An Exploratory Application.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s40271-015-0115-2
复制
发表时间：
2015-12
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Lambooij MS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Salampessy BH;Veldwijk J;Jantine Schuit A;van den Brekel-Dijkstra K;Neslo RE;Ardine de Wit G;Lambooij MS
这项研究的目的是通过比较声明的偏好和实际行为来评估离散选择实验(DCE)在公共卫生中的预测价值。780名2型糖尿病(T2 DM)患者接受了一份调查问卷，其中包含与T2 DM患者参与联合生活方式干预的意愿相关的五个属性的DCE。基于206份完整的DCE问卷，使用面板混合多项Logit模型来估计所陈述的偏好。根据患者的医疗记录和第二份问卷，检索了54名受访者的实际参与状况。预测的行为数据和实际的行为数据在群体水平和个体水平上进行了比较。基于估计的效用函数，81.8%的个体受访者提供的关于选择任务的答案被正确预测。总人口层面的实际参与率被最低限度地低估了(70.1比75.9%)。在所有个人选择中，74.1%的选择被正确预测，正预测值为0.80，负预测值为0.44。从DCE得出的陈述偏好可以充分预测公共卫生环境中的实际行为。
The objective of this study was to assess the predictive value of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in public health by comparing stated preferences to actual behavior. 780 Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients received a questionnaire, containing a DCE with five attributes related to T2DM patients’ willingness to participate in a combined lifestyle intervention. Panel mixed-multinomial-logit models were used to estimate the stated preferences based on 206 completed DCE questionnaires. Actual participation status was retrieved for 54 respondents based on patients’ medical records and a second questionnaire. Predicted and actual behavior data were compared at population level and at individual level. Based on the estimated utility function, 81.8 % of all answers that individual respondents provided on the choice tasks were predicted correctly. The actual participation rate at the aggregated population level was minimally underestimated (70.1 vs. 75.9 %). Of all individual choices, 74.1 % were predicted correctly with a positive predictive value of 0.80 and a negative predictive value of 0.44. Stated preferences derived from a DCE can adequately predict actual behavior in a public health setting.