Spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of dengue at county level in China from 2005-2017
Spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of dengue at county level in China from 2005-2017
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2005-2017年中国县级登革热疫情时空格局及影响因素
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2018.09.003
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Liu, Qiyong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Keke;Sun, Jimin;Liu, Qiyong
目的：识别登革热病例高风险时空聚集性并探讨相关危险因素。方法：对2005-2017年每月本土登革热病例进行县级汇总。使用SaTScan9.4.4和Arcgis10.3.0进行时空聚类分析来探索登革热分布特征。此外，利用Maxent 3.3.1软件中的生态位模型分析了登革热疫情的影响因素和潜在的高风险区域。结果：我们发现了登革热病例的异质时空分布模式。一级聚集区确定的高风险区域包括广东省13个县，二级聚集区包括云南省14个县。此外，气象和环境因素与登革热疫情之间存在非线性关联，其中年平均最低气温、土地覆盖和年平均降水量的贡献率分别为8.5%-57.1%、6.7%-38.3%和3.2%-40.4%。结论：登革热疫情高风险区主要位于广东省和云南省，受温度、降水和土地覆盖等环境和气象因素影响显着。 (c) 2018 年作者。由爱思唯尔有限公司代表国际传染病学会出版。
Objective: To identify the high risk spatiotemporal clusters of dengue cases and explore the associated risk factors.Methods: Monthly indigenous dengue cases in 2005-2017 were aggregated at county level. Spatiotemporal cluster analysis was used to explore dengue distribution features using SaTScan9.4.4 and Arcgis10.3.0. In addition, the influential factors and potential high risk areas of dengue outbreaks were analyzed using ecological niche models in Maxent 3.3.1 software.Results: We found a heterogeneous spatial and temporal distribution pattern of dengue cases. The identified high risk region in the primary cluster covered 13 counties in Guangdong Province and in the secondary clusters included 14 counties in Yunnan Province. Additionally, there was a nonlinear association between meteorological and environmental factors and dengue outbreaks, with 8.5%-57.1%, 6.7%-38.3% and 3.2%-40.4% contribution from annual average minimum temperature, land cover and annual average precipitation, respectively.Conclusions: The high risk areas of dengue outbreaks mainly are located in Guangdong and Yunnan Provinces, which are significantly shaped by environmental and meteorological factors, such as temperature, precipitation and land cover. (c) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.