Grey swan tropical cyclones
Grey swan tropical cyclones
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2777
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发表时间：
2016-01-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Emanuel, Kerry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lin, Ning;Emanuel, Kerry
我们将“灰天鹅”热带气旋定义为根据历史无法预测的高影响风暴，但可以使用物理知识和历史数据来预测。在这里，我们应用气候-水动力方法来估计灰天鹅热带气旋风暴潮威胁的三个高度脆弱的沿海地区。我们确定了波斯湾的潜在巨大风险，那里从未有热带气旋记录，澳大利亚凯恩斯和佛罗里达的坦帕的威胁大于预期。袭击坦帕、凯恩斯和迪拜的灰天鹅热带气旋可分别产生约6米、5.7米和4米的风暴潮，估计年发生概率约为万分之一。随着气候变化，这些概率在21世纪世纪会显著增加（坦帕在中期增加到1/3100 -1/1100，在世纪末增加到1/2500 -1/700）。更糟糕的灰天鹅热带气旋，在坦帕和迪拜引起超过11米的浪涌，也显示出不可忽视的概率，特别是接近世纪末。
We define 'grey swan' tropical cyclones as high-impact storms that would not be predicted based on history but may be foreseeable using physical knowledge together with historical data. Here we apply a climatological-hydrodynamic method to estimate grey swan tropical cyclone storm surge threat for three highly vulnerable coastal regions. We identify a potentially large risk in the Persian Gulf, where tropical cyclones have never been recorded, and larger-than-expected threats in Cairns, Australia, and Tampa, Florida. Grey swan tropical cyclones striking Tampa, Cairns and Dubai can generate storm surges of about 6 m, 5.7 m and 4 m, respectively, with estimated annual exceedance probabilities of about 1/10,000. With climate change, these probabilities can increase significantly over the twenty-first century (to 1/3,100-1/1,100 in the middle and 1/2,500-1/700 towards the end of the century for Tampa). Worse grey swan tropical cyclones, inducing surges exceeding 11 m in Tampa and 7 m in Dubai, are also revealed with non-negligible probabilities, especially towards the end of the century.