A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus
A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus
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DOI：
10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3
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发表时间：
2020-02-28
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
Yin, Ling
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chen, Tian-Mu;Rui, Jia;Yin, Ling
背景据世界卫生组织报告，中国当局于2020年1月7日将一种新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）确定为不明原因武汉肺炎的致病病毒。该病毒于2020年2月11日被国际病毒分类委员会命名为严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）。本研究旨在开发计算病毒传播性的数学模型。方法在本研究中，我们开发了蝙蝠-宿主-宿主-人传播网络模型，用于模拟从感染源（可能是蝙蝠）到人类感染的潜在传播。由于蝙蝠-宿主-水库网络很难探索清楚，而公众关注的焦点集中在从华南海鲜批发市场（水库）到人的传播，我们将模型简化为水库-人（RP）传播网络模型。采用下一代矩阵方法从 RP 模型计算基本繁殖数（R-0），以评估 SARS-CoV-2 的传播能力。结果 储存库与人之间的 R-0 值估计为 2.30，人与人之间的 R-0 值估计为 3.58，这意味着将单个感染者引入其他易感人群中导致的继发感染的预期数量为 3.58。结论 我们的模型显示，SARS-CoV-2 在中东国家的传播性高于中东呼吸综合征，与严重急性呼吸综合征相似，但低于韩国的 MERS。
Background As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus. Methods In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R-0) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. Results The value of R-0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58. Conclusions Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.