21st Century Drought Scenarios for the UK
21st Century Drought Scenarios for the UK
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英国 21 世纪干旱情景
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
M. New
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Rahiz;M. New;M. New
采用一个6个月干旱严重指数（DSI6）对HadRM3-PPE-UK从1950年到2100年的11个成员的月降水数据集进行研究，以预测21世纪英国的干旱情况。研究了干旱的四个主要特征：强度、干旱协方差、干旱月份的频率和给定持续时间内干旱事件的频率。分析了这些特征在30年期间的变化：1970-1999年（1980年代）、2010-2039年（2020年代）、2040-2069年（2050年代）和2070-2099年（2080年代），并描述了中度和极端干旱的季节性行为。干旱特征的预估以相对于20世纪80年代的总体平均变化和模式共识的形式表示，并在23个水资源区进行了分析。总的来说，2050年代和2080年代的干旱特征显示出深刻的增加（和广泛的），在雨季和中度干旱条件下发生较大的变化。干旱协方差在旱季增加更大，在极端干旱条件下变化幅度更大（但范围更小）。研究结果还表明，干旱可以持续很长时间。然而，与持续时间较短的干旱相比，预计持续时间较长的干旱频率较低。除干旱协方差外，水资源区干旱特征基本呈负向变化。然而，干旱的强度和持续时间也普遍在英格兰大部分已经被高度利用的湿地上增加。与水管理特别相关的是，这一综合结果对旱季的可用水量有很大影响，特别是在英格兰部分地区。
A 6-month drought severity index (DSI6) is applied to each of the 11-member perturbed-physics ensemble (HadRM3-PPE-UK) monthly precipitation dataset from 1950 to 2100 to investigate projected 21st century droughts in the UK. Four main drought characteristics are investigated: intensity, drought covariance, frequency of drought months and frequency of drought events at a given duration. Changes in these characteristics are analysed for 30-year periods: 1970–1999 (1980s), 2010–2039 (2020s), 2040–2069 (2050s) and 2070–2099 (2080s) and described in terms of their seasonal behaviour, for both moderate and extreme droughts. Projections of drought characteristics are expressed in the forms of ensemble-mean change relative to the 1980s and model consensus, and analysed over 23 water resource regions. In general, drought characteristics show profound increases (and widespread) for the 2050s and 2080s with larger change occurring during the wet season and under moderate drought conditions. Drought covariance sees greater increase during the dry season with greater change magnitude (but less widespread) under extreme drought conditions. Results also show that droughts can persist over long durations. However, the projected frequency of droughts at longer durations is low compared with droughts with shorter duration of persistence. Water resource regions (WWRs) mostly show negative change in drought characteristics, except for drought covariance. However, intensity and duration of droughts also generally increase over most of the WRRs in England, which are already highly exploited. Of particular relevance to water management, results from this ensemble have a strong influence on dry season water availability, especially in parts of England.