Trend analysis of O3 and CO in the period 1980–1996: A three‐dimensional model study
Trend analysis of O3 and CO in the period 1980–1996: A three‐dimensional model study
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1980-1996年期间O3和CO的趋势分析：三维模型研究
DOI：
10.1029/2000jd900374
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Berntsen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Karlsdóttir;I. Isaksen;G. Myhre;T. Berntsen
在过去的20-30年里，全球与人类活动有关的排放发生了显著的变化。本文利用对流层三维化学输送模式(三维奥斯陆CTM1模式)研究了1980-1996年期间一氧化碳(CO)和臭氧(O_3)浓度的变化与排放速率和模式的变化之间的关系。结果表明，这两个物种的变化很好地反映了排放的变化，尤其是CO，因为它在很大程度上是由CO排放驱动的。一氧化碳和臭氧排放量变化的最显著影响出现在东欧和东南亚。1980年至1996年东欧地区行星边界层中CO和O_3浓度的年趋势分别为−1.94±0.42ppbv/年和−0.01±0.02ppbv/年。在东南亚有一个积极的趋势，CO浓度为2.29±0.13 ppbv/年，臭氧浓度为0.6±0.03 ppbv/年。模拟的CO和O3浓度与观测值之间的一致性很好。对于臭氧，通过包括飞机排放的变化和研究期间平流层臭氧水平降低的两个影响(改变的光解率和平流层-对流层交换)，模拟结果与观测值相比有所改善。
During the last 20–30 years, noticeable changes have occurred in emissions related to anthropogenic activity over the globe. In this study a three-dimensional chemical transport model for the troposphere (the 3-D Oslo CTM1 model) is used to investigate how changes in the concentration of carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) in the period 1980–1996 can be related to changes in emission rates and patterns. The results indicate that changes in both species reflect the emission changes well, especially CO because it is to a large degree driven by CO emissions. The most pronounced effect of the changes in emissions for CO and O3 is seen in eastern Europe and Southeast Asia. The annual trend in CO and O3 concentrations in the planetary boundary layer during the period 1980–1996 in eastern Europe is −1.94±0.42 ppbv/yr and −0.01±0.02 ppbv/yr, respectively. In Southeast Asia a positive trend is seen, with 2.29±0.13 ppbv/yr in the CO concentration and 0.6 ± 0.03 ppbv/yr in the O3 concentration. The agreement between the modeled CO and O3 concentrations and observations is good. For O3 an improvement is gained in the modeled results compared with observations, by including changes in emissions from aircraft, and two effects of reduced stratospheric O3 level (altered photolysis rates and stratospheric-tropospheric exchange) during the period of study.