Trade-offs between water needs for food, utilities, and the environment—a nexus quantification at different scales
Trade-offs between water needs for food, utilities, and the environment—a nexus quantification at different scales
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食物、公用事业和环境用水需求之间的权衡——不同尺度的量化关系
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac2b5e
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
D. V. van Vuuren
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lotte de Vos;H. Biemans;J. Doelman;E. Stehfest;D. V. van Vuuren
随着人口的增长和气候的变化，在水-能源-粮食（WEF）关系中对水资源的竞争预计会增加。在这项研究中，粮食生产、淡水生态系统和公用事业（能源、工业和家庭）之间的竞争用水需求被量化。利用综合评估模型IMAGE（包括全球植被和水文模型伦德-波茨坦-耶拿管理土地（LPJmL）），详细阐述了不同SSP情景的潜在权衡和相关影响。在全球尺度上对2045-2054年期间的结果进行了评估，并选择了14个热点盆地和海岸带。在全球范围内，我们估计，如果优先考虑粮食生产和环境流动，可能会增加17亿人面临电力、工业和家庭严重缺水的问题。在热点地区，这意味着高达70%的当地人口。结果进一步表明，当优先考虑关系中的其他用水需求时，热点地区高达33%的河流长度可能无法满足环境目标。对于当地粮食生产而言，由于水资源需求的竞争，可能会损失高达41%的水资源。本研究中量化的潜在权衡突出了世界经济论坛关系中对资源的竞争，其影响在地方尺度上最为明显。这强调了在制定旨在实现多个可持续性目标的方案时，需要同时考虑关系的不同方面。
With a growing population and a changing climate, competition for water resources in the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is expected to increase. In this study, competing water demands between food production, freshwater ecosystems and utilities (energy, industries and households) are quantified. The potential trade-offs and related impacts are elaborated for different SSP scenarios with the integrated assessment model IMAGE, which includes the global vegetation and hydrology model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL). Results for the 2045–2054 period are evaluated at the global scale and for a selection of 14 hotspot basins and coastal zones. On the global scale, we estimate that an additional 1.7 billion people could potentially face severe water shortage for electricity, industries and households if food production and environmental flows would be prioritized. Zooming in on the hotspots, this translates to up to 70% of the local population. Results furthermore show that up to 33% of river length in the hotspots risks not meeting environmental targets when prioritizing other water demands in the nexus. For local food production, up to 41% might be lost due to competing water demands. The potential trade-offs quantified in this study highlight the competition for resources in the WEF nexus, for which impacts are most notably felt at local scales. This emphasizes the need to simultaneously consider different dimensions of the nexus when developing scenarios that aim to achieve multiple sustainability targets.
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Rost, Stefanie;Gerten, Dieter;Schaphoff, Sibyll
通讯作者：
Schaphoff, Sibyll