Estimation of cool summer damage in the Tohoku region based on the MRI AGCM
Estimation of cool summer damage in the Tohoku region based on the MRI AGCM
复制标题
基于MRI AGCM的东北地区夏季凉爽损害估算
DOI：
10.2480/agrmet.d-14-00004
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
T. Iwasaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Kanda;H. Kanno;S. Okubo;T. Shimada;R. Yoshida;Takashi Kobayashi;T. Iwasaki
我们分析了全球变暖引起的气候变化对日本东北地区水稻夏季冷害风险的影响。我们将气象研究所的大气环流模式（MRI AGCM）缩小到10 km，并使用月平均温度及其标准差来校正模拟温度的偏差。我们没有使用日平均温度来确定凉爽夏季损害的风险。相反，我们使用的是根据一段时间内的日平均温度计算的冷却程度（CDAT）。我们还使用了根据抽穗前一个月的温度计算的标准化产量。在当前气候条件下发生的冷害的可重复性的检查是基于偏差校正的数据，这表明，虽然模拟的冷夏危害的风险略有低估的CDAT和标准化产量，风险的面积分布是相似的，在那些年的冷夏危害。由于未来气候条件下气温升高的影响，我们假定抽穗期比当前气候提前15.6 d，并将临界期提前半个月，计算了CDAT和标准化产量。在未来气候情景下的第二和第三个最冷的夏天，在东北南部地区面临太平洋和青森县在日本海一侧的凉爽夏季损害的风险降低，但凉爽夏季损害的风险几乎与1980年观测到的凉爽夏季相同。总之，我们的研究结果表明，在未来的气候下，由MRI AGCM模拟，凉爽的夏季损害的风险将持续在东北地区;因此，风险管理凉爽的夏季损害将是必不可少的，即使全球气温上升。
We analyzed the impact of climate change due to global warming on the risk of cool summer damage to paddy rice in the Tohoku region of Japan. We downscaled the atmospheric general circulation model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI AGCM) to 10 km, and we used monthly average temperatures and their standard deviations to correct the bias of the simulated temperatures. We did not use daily averaged temperatures to determine the risk of cool summer damage. Instead, we used the cooling degree calculated from the average daily temperature over a period of time (CDAT). We also used the standardized yield calculated from temperatures during the month preceding heading. An examination of the reproducibility of cooling damage occurring under the current climate was based on bias-corrected data which revealed that although the simulated risk of cool summer damage slightly underestimated both the CDAT and the standardized yield, the areal distributions of risk were similar to those in years of cool summer damage. We assumed that the heading stage occurred 15.6 days earlier than current climate because of the impact of temperature increase under the future climate and therefore calculated the CDAT and standardized yield by advancing the critical period by half a month. During the secondand third-coolest summers under the future climate scenario, the risk of cool summer damage decreased in the southern Tohoku region facing the Pacific Ocean and in Aomori Prefecture on the Japan Sea side, but the risk of cool summer damage was almost the same as during the observed cool summer of 1980. In summary, our results revealed that under a future climate, simulated by the MRI AGCM, the risk of cool summer damage will persist in the Tohoku region; risk management for cool summer damage will therefore be essential, even though global temperatures rise.
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Shimono, Hiroyuki;Okada, Masumi;Arakawa, Ichiro
通讯作者：
Arakawa, Ichiro
CO_2升高对低温水稻花不育的影响
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
Journal of Agricultural Meteorology 60
影响因子：
--
作者：
Takahata;Y.;H.Fukuoka;K.Wakui;岡田 益己
通讯作者：
岡田 益己
影响因子：
1.3
作者：
T. Iizumi;Y. Hayashi;F. Kimura
通讯作者：
T. Iizumi;Y. Hayashi;F. Kimura